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雪人股份(002639):压缩机业务进入收获季 氢燃料电池产业化加速

長城國瑞證券 ·  Oct 18, 2016 00:00  · Researches

The ice making equipment business is growing steadily. Driven by domestic nuclear power and overseas projects, the company's ice making equipment business began to reverse losses in the second quarter. At the same time, ice machine production efficiency increased, speeding up the delivery period from 6 months to 3 months now. We expect the ice making equipment business to maintain a growth rate of more than 10% this year, with sales revenue of about 400 million yuan. Screw compressors ushered in opportunities for further development, and company mergers and acquisitions entered the harvest season. Screw air compressors have replaced piston air compressors in many fields, and the company's screw compressors have ushered in further development opportunities. The Forward-looking Industry Research Institute predicts that by 2018, China's screw air compressor market will maintain an average annual growth rate of more than 15%. Beginning in 2013, the company has successively acquired 17.21% of OPCON in Sweden, 100% of Italy's Raffcom, and 5% of US CN. It has also acquired 100% of OPCON's subsidiaries SRM and OES through participating M&A funds. After years of continuous mergers and acquisitions of world-class technology companies, the company's compressor business broke through the cocoon and formed a world-leading technology platform, benefiting from compressor equipment upgrades, import substitution, and the development of cold chain logistics into the harvest season. In the first half of 2015 and 2016, the operating income of the compressor business increased by 398.88% and 131.88%, respectively. We expect the compounded growth rate of the company's compressor business to exceed 30% in 2016-2017, and profit growth will be even faster. Focus on fuel cells and lay out the core links in the hydrogen energy industry chain. The company invests in the establishment of subsidiaries to accelerate technology research and development and industrial layout in hydrogen energy-related fields, taking advantage of SRM and OES's first-mover advantage in fuel cell air circulation system core technology and brands. SRM and OES have been involved in the development of fuel cell air supply systems since the 90s of the last century. They have provided fuel cell air supply systems for Ballard fuel cells and other major automobile manufacturers in the world such as GM, Mercedes-Benz, Toyota, Honda, Ford, etc. The 27 fuel cell buses they have participated in in the European Clean City Transportation Project have operated since 2006, and the operating mileage of the system has exceeded 300 million kilometers, and the safety and reliability of the system has been verified. At the same time, the US CN company in which the company is a shareholder owns turbo-air compressor technology for fuel cells, and the company plans to continue to increase its shares to further diversify fuel cell air circulation system technology. The liquefaction of hydrogen and the construction of hydrogen stations are in the upper reaches of the entire hydrogen energy industry. The company currently uses turbomachinery technology developed by CN in the United States, and hydrogen liquefaction technology has reached the world's advanced level. Acquire Jiayun Oil & Gas to improve the layout of the energy industry. The company completed the acquisition of Jiayun Oil and Gas in May of this year. The acquisition of Jiayun Oil and Gas will help the company's compressors quickly enter natural gas and other oil and gas applications. In addition, Jiayun Oil & Gas's performance contribution laid the foundation for the further expansion of the company's compressor business. Its promised performance was that net profit attributable to the parent company after deduction in 2016, 2017, and 2018 was not less than RMB 38.89 million, RMB 44.72 million, and RMB 51.42 million, respectively. The total promised net profit over three years was not less than 135.03 million yuan. Investment suggestions: Under the premise that Jiayun Oil and Gas fulfills its performance promises, we expect the company's net profit in 2016-2017 to be 51.16 million yuan and 82.32 million yuan respectively, EPS is 0.08 yuan and 0.12 yuan respectively, and corresponding PE is 138.5 times and 92.33 times, respectively. Currently, the median PE (TTM, excluding negative values) in the refrigeration and air conditioning equipment industry is 48.23 times. Considering that the company's compressor business has entered the harvest season, hydrogen energy fuel cell industrialization accelerates, and can be given a certain valuation premium, we can maintain its “buying” Level. Risk warning: Demand for refrigeration equipment is insufficient, competition in the compressor industry is intensifying, and the progress of hydrogen fuel cell industrialization has fallen short of expectations.

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