Sichuan Changhong (600839): great competitive pressure in color TV market

中金公司 · Jul 15, 2019 00:00 · Researches

　　公司动态

　　公司近况

　　AVC 零售监测数据，1H19 彩电市场继续需求不佳。

　　彩电市场需求继续下滑：1）1H19 彩电市场线上、线下零售额分别同比-5%、-18%。公司零售表现略弱于行业，1H19 线上、线下零售额分别同比-8%、-21%，导致长虹彩电市场份额分别同比-0.2ppt、-0.4ppt。2）彩电市场从2018 年开始下滑，2018 年中国彩电市场零售额同比-9%，2019 年1-5 月彩电零售额同比-12%，下滑幅度未见缩小。

　　彩电市场竞争激烈，公司盈利能力下滑：1）1H19 彩电市场继续面临激烈的价格竞争，行业线上、线下零售均价分别同比下滑13%、7%。长虹线上、线下零售均价分别同比下滑8%、3%，降价幅度略小于行业平均，这也是导致公司零售表现弱于行业的原因之一。2）2018 年开始彩电线上市场面临小米的激烈竞争。2018年小米彩电线上零售量同比大幅增长172%，市场份额跃居线上第一。小米的低价策略加剧了需求下行阶段的价格竞争，对内销彩电业务的盈利能力造成负面影响。3）2018 年长虹彩电收入同比下滑6%，利润同比减少1.16 亿。我们预计1H19 公司彩电业务的盈利能力仍然较弱。

　　2H19 期待更多家电消费刺激政策：1）2019 年以来政府多次强调推出家电消费刺激政策，历史上家电补贴政策惠及彩电市场。目前北京、广西出台了相关补贴政策。2）广西出台了包含电视产品的以旧换新政策，广西城镇电视机保有量114 台/百户，和全国处于同一水平。由于广西经济实力并不强，对全国各省市的示范作用反而更强。3）我们期待下半年会有更多的省市推出家电补贴政策，提振家电需求。

　　估值建议

　　考虑1H19 彩电行业继续需求不佳，下调2019/20 年EPS 预测14%/10%至0.09 元/0.11 元。维持中性评级，下调目标价16%至3.20元，对应34x/29x 2019/20e P/E，涨幅空间8%。公司当前股价对应31x/27x 2019/20e P/E。

　　风险

　　彩电市场竞争风险

Company trends

The current situation of the company

AVC retail monitoring data, 1H19 color TV market demand continues to be poor.

Comment

The demand of color TV market continues to decline: 1) online and offline retail sales of 1H19 color TV market are-5% and-18% respectively compared with the same period last year. The company's retail performance is slightly weaker than the industry, 1H19 online and offline retail sales are-8% and-21% respectively compared with the same period last year, resulting in Changhong color TV market share year-on-year-0.2ppt and-0.4ppt. 2) the color TV market began to decline in 2018, and the retail sales of color TV sets in China in 2018 were-9% year on year. From January to May 2019, the retail sales of color TV sets were-12% year on year.

The competition in the color TV market is fierce, and the company's profitability is declining: 1) the 1H19 color TV market continues to face fierce price competition, with the industry's online and offline retail prices falling by 13% and 7% respectively compared with the same period last year. The average online and offline retail prices of Changhong fell 8% and 3% respectively compared with the same period last year, slightly less than the industry average, which is one of the reasons why the company's retail performance is weaker than that of the industry. 2) from 2018, the market on color wires is facing fierce competition from XIAOMI. In 2018, the retail volume of XIAOMI color wires increased by 172% compared with the same period last year, ranking first on the line in market share. XIAOMI's low-price strategy intensifies the price competition in the downward stage of demand, which has a negative impact on the profitability of the domestic color TV business. 3) in 2018, the revenue of Changhong color TV dropped by 6% compared with the same period last year, and the profit decreased by 116 million. We expect the profitability of 1H19's color TV business to remain weak.

2H19 expects more home appliance consumption stimulus policies: 1) since 2019, the government has repeatedly emphasized the introduction of home appliance consumption stimulus policies, and historically, home appliance subsidy policies have benefited the color TV market. At present, Beijing and Guangxi have introduced relevant subsidy policies. 2) Guangxi has introduced a trade-in policy including TV products, and the number of TV sets in cities and towns in Guangxi is 114 per 100 households, which is at the same level as that of the whole country. As the economic strength of Guangxi is not strong, the exemplary role of provinces and cities in the country is stronger. 3) We expect more provinces and cities to introduce household appliance subsidy policies in the second half of the year to boost the demand for household appliances.

Valuation proposal

In view of the continued poor demand in the 1H19 color TV industry, the 20% EPS forecast for 2019 is lowered by 10% to 0.09 yuan / 0.11 yuan. Maintain the neutral rating, downgrade the target price by 16% to RMB3.20, corresponding to 34x/29x 2019Universe 20e PPink E, an increase of 8 per cent. The current share price of the company corresponds to 31x/27x 2019 Universe 20e P Unix E.

Risk.

Competition risk in color TV market

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四川长虹(600839)：彩电市场竞争压力较大

Sichuan Changhong (600839): great competitive pressure in color TV market

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