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腾达建设(600512):订单高速增长 PPP业务提升盈利水平

天風證券 ·  Mar 27, 2017 00:00  · Researches

Orders are rising rapidly, and PPP projects have become a strong growth point. In 2016, the company and its subsidiaries won 22 bids for projects, with a total contract amount of 4,318 billion dollars, an increase of 62.05% over the same period last year, all of which were construction contracts. Of these, 21 projects are single-construction projects, totaling 1,760 million dollars, which have basically achieved the target; 1 is an integrated (PPP) model, with an amount of 2,558 billion dollars. The “quality” of PPP orders is excellent, and there is still a lot of room for growth in “quantity”. In 2017, the company focused on developing rail transit and PPP, and the PPP model is expected to become a new growth point for the company's orders. Revenue increased, and gross margin significantly increased the company's 2016 operating income of 3,068 billion yuan, an increase of 5.04%. The main business was construction, of which the PPP project confirmed revenue of 594 million yuan in the current period. Furthermore, real estate development projects mainly absorb stocks, and business volume is gradually declining. Currently, the gross profit of the company's rail transit construction is higher than that of other projects, and the PPP model is higher than that of single construction. In 2017, the company strives to achieve an operating income of 3.5 billion yuan and an estimated operating cost of 2.9 billion yuan. Under the circumstances where the company vigorously develops rail transit business and promotes PPP projects with remarkable results and sufficient capital, this goal is expected to be achieved. We used the “gross margin - operating tax and additional/sales revenue” index to remove changes in accounting standards brought about by “business change to growth”. Using this indicator, we calculated that the gross margin for 2016 was 12.02%, which is 1.49% higher than the annual gross profit margin, mainly due to the high gross profit margin of the Taizhou Bay Bridge PPP project of 36.36% in the current period. The period's expenses fell, and the net profit for the period rose sharply by 6.29%, down 0.95 percentage points from last year. The sales expense ratio increased by 0.05 percentage points; the management expense ratio remained essentially unchanged; and the finance expense ratio was reduced by 1 percentage point, mainly because issuing shares to repay bank loans reduced interest repayment. Net investment income increased by 37.52%, and asset impairment losses increased by 51.52%. The reason is that the net value of Yichun real estate development projects fell below book value due to market downturn. Taken together, net profit was 84.47 million yuan, up 394% from the same period. Operating cash flow changed from negative to positive for the first time in many years, providing a solid foundation for the company's steady growth to establish hydrogen industry funds. The “umbrella fund” structure maximizes the use of resources. The company participated in the establishment of industrial funds this year. Following the second phase of Shanghai Panshi Tengda Investment Partnership, it also participated in the establishment of the “China Hydrogen Industry Fund”. The hydrogen industry is in line with the national energy development direction and has high thermal value and strong cleanliness. It is expected to open up the entire industry chain in the “hydrogen” field in the future, helping enterprises develop new fields. The investment suggests that the company vigorously develop rail transit and PPP project business, which will gradually increase the company's profitability and actively expand the market outward. The establishment of an industrial fund to explore big consumption and new energy is expected to make progress in '17, which will help the company's long-term development. The availability of capital raised has reduced the pressure on corporate capital, and business areas are expected to expand at an accelerated pace in '17. Overall, the company's business situation continues to improve. The EPS for 17-19 is expected to be 0.09/0.12/0.14 yuan. PE was 60/48/39 times, covering the first time, giving the company an “increase in holdings” rating. Risk warning: PPP projects fall short of expectations; domestic fixed asset investment falls short of expectations

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