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*ST獐岛(002069):养殖有望好转 产品营销发力 静待资源整合

天風證券 ·  Mar 9, 2017 00:00  · Researches

Actively abandoning unsuitable areas for sowing and implementing “3+1" rotational farming, farming yield is expected to steadily increase. The company will achieve a shift from large-scale to quality-efficiency focusing on unit output rates by divesting 790,000 mu of unsuitable sowage. The remaining 2.4 million mu will implement rotational farming, according to the “raise for three years, idle one year” approach, leaving 600,000 mu idle every year. In 2016, the company's mu production is expected to be 37-38 kg, and the yield per mu is expected to reach more than 40 kg in 17 years. According to the annual fishing area of 600,000 mu, it is expected that 2 million kilograms more of shrimp and scallops will be produced. Also, considering the increase in the price of scallops, the gross profit is expected to increase by 100 million dollars. In the long run, through the integration and rational use of regional farming resources, and the improvement of breeding efficiency brought about through the improvement of seedlings, the company's shrimp and scallop yield is expected to increase to 60 kg (the company reached more than 70 kg at its highest, Japan is currently more than 100 kg). According to the annual harvest of 600,000 mu, the total output is 36,000 tons. Strengthen product innovation, expand B-side and KA channels, and increase the gross profit of processing business As costs continue to rise, simple processing business has become unsustainable. It is necessary to carry out product development and product innovation for downstream customers, and obtain market development and profit improvement through the production of deep-processed products that meet market needs. Currently, the company is also undergoing an active transformation, and processed products are beginning to lean towards semi-finished products, condiments, ready-to-eat products, etc. The company has developed market explosions: such as garlic and scallops, sold only over 14 million in '14, reached 37 million in '15, and is expected to reach 60 million yuan in 16. In addition, the company has also created a variety of snack foods and achieved rapid growth. Sales in 2015 were only 6 to 7 million yuan, and in 2016 it is expected to be over 20 million yuan. Currently, the average monthly sales is expected to be 5 to 6 million yuan, and sales revenue of 100 million yuan is expected to be achieved in '17. On the channel side, the company began to transform the channel layout with themes such as catering, industrial consumption, and KA, and began to build its own brand. In terms of channel development, it is expected that the company will expand more through cooperation and acquisition in the future. For example, at present, the company has reached cooperation with Laiyifen, Liangpin Store, etc., where the two provide product standards and are responsible for product sales, while the company is responsible for product processing. The company is expected to integrate local aquaculture resources in Changhai County. Currently, the aquaculture area in Changhai County is about 8 million mu, operated by five or six companies. The largest of these are the company (which currently still has 2.5 million mu of water surface) and Ocean Island (which is also around 2.4 million mu), with a scale of around 1 million mu. Due to the drastic expansion of farming area now, shrimp and scallop farming production is currently hovering at a low level, and farming efficiency is poor. The Changhai County government and companies hope to promote the integration of local resources, improve farming efficiency and improve economic efficiency through rational breeding rotation. As the only listed company in the local aquaculture sector, we expect that the company will most likely become a platform for the Changhai County government to promote the integration of local farming resources in the future. The company's future aquaculture area is expected to increase dramatically as a result. Giving a “buy” rating: The company's breeding improvements and product channel development will effectively enhance the company's profitability, so increase the company's net profit in 2016/2017/2018 to 0.79/2.51/449 billion yuan, EPS to 0.11/0.35/0.63 yuan, 25 times over 18 years, and the target price to 16 yuan. Risk warning: 1. Breeding risks; 2. Product prices fluctuate greatly

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