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景峰医药(000908):榄香烯增长空间巨大 17年营收拐点和估值提升预期

天風證券 ·  Mar 3, 2017 00:00  · Researches

Shenxiao Glucose and Sodium Hyaluronate were affected by tenders in '16, and Shenxiao Glucose, which steadily rebounded to chemical approval in '17, is estimated to have revenue of 1.2 billion dollars in 2016, accounting for nearly 46% of the company's revenue. Due to the impact of the general environment of traditional Chinese medicine injections and adjuvant medication, the company's overall valuation was lowered. There was a year-on-year decrease of about 10% in 2016. Among them, the tender price fell by 2-3%, and the abandonment of the bid in Fujian led to a drop of about 8%. Currently, Shenxiao Glucose has a total of 27 provincial health insurance coverage in 17, an increase of 2 over 2016, and Fujian is expected to renegotiate entry. It is expected to increase by about 10% over the same period last year. The company has the largest share of the sodium hyaluronate market. Revenue is expected to be around 300 million in 2016, down about 10% year-on-year due to factors falling in tender prices. The company gradually increased its self-employment ratio for this variety in '17, and the growth rate is expected to be around 10%. The new medical insurance catalogue has benefited many varieties. The company has opened up room for growth of olivene. The company introduced a total of 17 varieties in the 17th edition of the medical insurance catalogue, including 4 new and additional indications: olivocene injections and oral milk, exclusive analgesic active tincture, and pemetrexed. The only competitor of olivine is Shi Yao, which is ordinary water injections, with sales expected to exceed 100 million in 16 years; the company has two dosage forms, and they are all liposomes, which have the advantage of passing through the blood-brain barrier; the 09 version of medical insurance only included cancerous thoracic ascites; in 09-16, the company gradually obtained 7 indications in 14 provinces; the 17th edition of the national health insurance policy included 6 indications; the estimated revenue for 2016 was 400 million. The benefits of expanding national health insurance indications and the company successfully sold Eddy's injection and Conlet's injection have a strong sales team Wu, it is estimated that it will be over 1 billion in three years. The analgesic and active tincture is expected to sell for about 200 million in 16 years. Currently, it is in a growth period, and is expected to increase 20% in 17 years. Second-tier varieties form an oncology drug product line group led by olivodene. Revenue is expected to exceed that of Shenxiao Glucose in '18. Valuation increases. The company's current product line pattern is the first-tier undervalued variety of Shenxiao Glucose. Second-tier varieties mainly include high-valued, fast-growing sodium hyaluronate, olivene, calming and analgesic tinctures. The company integrates existing tumor varieties and adjusts sales assessments to gradually form cancer drug product lines with leading products such as olivocene, adjuvant pemetrexed, iritecan, oxaliplatin, gemcitabine, and iphosfamide, and it is expected that the company will use epitaxial methods to enrich the tumor product line. The revenue of second-tier varieties is expected to be 1.38 billion and 1.86 billion in '17 and '18, respectively. It will surpass that of Shenxiao Glucose in '18, making it possible to increase the valuation. The company's R&D line focuses on cardiovascular and oncology drugs, focusing on Sun's Hainan Jinrui Company, which currently has 5 R&D institutions with biopharmaceuticals and high-end chemical agents (liposomes, microspheres, etc.). The fastest progressing ones are cardiovascular and oncology drugs: valsartan amlodipine tablets, tirofiban, and fasudil are under production approval; erlotinib, gefitinib, dasatinib, imatinib, etc. are under review for production approval. The first-tier and second-tier product pattern of valuation and rating companies is obvious. Currently, revenue recovery for first-tier varieties is imminent, and second-tier varieties are growing rapidly; new medical insurance has opened up room for growth in olivene, driving the formation of a strong cancer product line group; it is expected that the valuation increase in '18 is on the way. EPS is expected to be 0.41, 0.52, and 0.64 yuan in 16-18, corresponding to PE of 25 times, 20 times, and 16 times. It is estimated at 25 times in 17, corresponding to the first target price of 13 yuan, and a purchase rating for the first time. Risk warning: Tender price reduction continues, olivodene growth rate is lower than expected

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