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东岳集团(0189.HK):优秀的氟硅材料龙头

Dongyue Group (0189.HK): Excellent leader in fluorosilicon materials

東興證券 ·  Jun 27, 2019 00:00  · Researches

The company is the largest manufacturer of fluorosilicon materials in Asia. It started with fluorine chemical products and silicone products as the main products, and has now formed an integrated fluorosilicon enterprise covering refrigerants, fluorine rubber, silicone, etc. The company's fluorine chemical product chain is relatively complete and competitive. The company is located in a specialized chemical park. With the continuous strengthening of domestic environmental and safety requirements, the company's location advantage will become more significant. At the same time, due to the perfect integration of the company and the close distance between the main production bases, each plant area can directly supply raw materials, steam, etc. to each other by means of pipeline interconnection, which has significant cost advantages and management advantages. In terms of refrigerant products, the company is the nation's largest producer of R22. In recent years, due to the upgrading of refrigerants, production of R22 has stopped overseas, and strict quota management has also been carried out domestically, and supply and demand for R22 has become strained. At the same time, fluorite, which is the main cost component of refrigerant, is gradually strengthening its resource properties as a strategic mineral. At the same time, environmental protection has led to the withdrawal of large amounts of small to medium production capacity, providing cost support for refrigerant prices, and refrigerants can also obtain scissor profits from industrial products while conveying the rise in raw material prices. As a result, refrigerants, and R22 in particular, are expected to remain at a high level of profitability. The company's fluoropolymers have broad scope for development. The company's PTFE products account for more than 37% of the market, and its leading position in the industry is remarkable. As the application of PTFE in the fields of cable, energy saving and environmental protection continues to increase, it is expected that its demand will continue to grow at a rate of about 8% per year, and production capacity is relatively insufficient, and the industry as a whole is in a phase of tight supply and demand. The company's fluoropolymer products are expected to maintain a high level of profitability. In the silicone sector, the company's share of deep processing product revenue is increasing year by year, and product profitability and competitiveness are constantly being strengthened. The company plans to split the silicone sector and list it on GEM. If approved, it will further expand the company's scale advantage and integrated advantage. Company profit forecast and investment rating: We expect the company's net profit for 2019-2021 to be 1,787, 21.89 billion yuan and 2,359 million yuan, respectively, corresponding EPS of 0.85, 1.04 and 1.12 yuan, respectively. The current stock price corresponds to the 2019-2021 PE value of 5.7, 4.6, and 4.3 times, respectively. Optimistic about the company's profitability and long-term development in the field of refrigerants and new materials, the first coverage gave it a “recommended” rating. Risk warning: Prices of raw materials and products fluctuate sharply, and the production capacity investment schedule is lower than expected.

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