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蓝海华腾(300484):工控企业搭上新能源汽车电控的班车

國泰君安 ·  Apr 29, 2017 00:00  · Researches

Guide to this report: The company's electronic control business accounts for more than 80%, and it is expected that buses, logistics vehicles, and passenger cars will blossom more in the future; the launch of new industrial control products in 2017, combined with this round of industrial control recovery, is expected to help the company's industrial control business reach a new level. Key investment points: First coverage, rating for increasing holdings. Relying on its accumulation in the field of frequency conversion and servo, the company is leading the way in the field of electronic control of new energy vehicles, and has achieved excellent results in the field of buses and logistics vehicles. The company's EPS is expected to be 1.97, 2.65, and 3.46 yuan in 2017-2019, with a target price of 82 yuan, corresponding to 42XPE in 2017. It covers the first time and increases the rating. A genuine standard for electronic control of new energy vehicles. The company achieved revenue of 678 million yuan in 2016, an increase of 118.79% over the previous year; of these, the NEV electronic control business revenue reached 555 million yuan, accounting for more than 80%, and has become a true profit center for the company. Currently, the proportion of new energy buses and logistics vehicles in the electronic control business is close. As the company's passenger car products advance, it is expected that buses, logistics vehicles, and passenger cars will blossom more; and after joining the Watermar Innovation Alliance, the company is expected to receive more orders from members within the alliance, further driving the growth of the company's NEV electronic control business. The industrial control business is expected to gain strength, and high-margin products ensure the company's profits. In 2016, the company's overall gross profit margin was 44.75%; among them, the gross profit margin of electronic control was 44.88%, a decrease of 3.66%, and the gross profit margin of medium and low voltage inverters was 42.95%, an increase of 1.89%. At present, it has been agreed that the sales price of electronic control products for new energy vehicles will decline further, and the gross margin of the company's electronic control products will also decline further. At this time, the higher gross margin level of industrial control products will become the key to guarantee the company's profitability. According to the company's plan, investment in industrial control business will be increased in the new year, and new products will be launched as soon as possible to open up a new situation. We believe that although industrial control products currently do not account for a high share of revenue, the company's industrial control business is expected to reach a new level this year as the company's attention increases and the launch of new products is compounded by this round of market recovery. Risk warning: New industrial control products fall short of market expectations, and sales of new energy vehicles fall short of expectations

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