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华钰矿业(601020):铅锌价格高企 助力地区矿产龙头腾飞

天風證券 ·  Aug 16, 2017 00:00  · Researches

The company released the 2017 semi-annual report. The company achieved revenue of 285 million yuan in the first half of 2017, an increase of 20.3% over the previous year, and net profit attributable to owners of the parent company of 124 million yuan, an increase of 157.9% over the previous year. The performance is in line with market expectations. The price of lead and zinc rose, and the profit momentum was strong. The company benefited from high lead and zinc prices in the first half of the year. Revenue increased by 96 million yuan due to price differences, sales volume declined, and revenue decreased by 48 million yuan due to sales volume. However, the high price difference offset the losses caused by the decline in sales, and the volume and price impact totaled 48 million yuan. Due to a decrease in sales volume, operating costs were reduced by $11 million, and since there were no signs of impairment in the company's inventory, a loss of $12 million was calculated by recovering from falling inventory prices. Overall, profit for the first half of 2017 increased by 157.9% year-on-year. The price of lead and zinc has risen or is sustainable. Since 2014, investment in the domestic lead-zinc mining and selection industry has declined, and investment in new production capacity is limited. Furthermore, in recent years, safety and environmental protection actions have led to a large number of areas where production capacity is concentrated in small mines, and sampling capacity is declining. Affected by the decline in production in 2017 and the rise in downstream demand, the lead-zinc supply gap continued to widen. It is predicted that in 2017, the lead concentrate supply gap will be 210,000 tons, and the zinc concentrate supply gap will be 300,000 tons. It is expected that lead and zinc prices will remain high and volatile in the second half of 2017. As prices continue to rise, the company's future profit margin is worth looking forward to. Located in the southwest, the company has significant advantages in mining resources. The company already has 2 production mines, Zaxikang Mine and Lawu Mine, and also has 4 detailed prospecting projects. Currently, the reserves of lead, zinc, copper, antimony and silver resources have reached 821,000 metal tons, 1,2554 million metal tons, 276,000 metal tons, 184,000 metal tons, and 2,107.71 metal tons, respectively. The company's excellent mineral resources are expected to bring continuous profit to the company. Profit forecast and rating: We forecast that the company's 2017-2019 EPS will be 0.63 yuan, 0.70 yuan and 0.77 yuan respectively. The dynamic P/E will be 37.23 times, 33.33 times and 30.29 times, respectively, and the corresponding closing price on August 15 is 23.27 yuan. The company's future performance is expected to continue to grow, giving the company an “increase in holdings” rating. Risk warning: lead-zinc metal prices are falling, and the company's lead-zinc metal production falls short of expectations

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