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全聚德(002186):主业平稳 期待外延打开更大空间

東方證券 ·  Aug 17, 2017 00:00  · Researches

The company announced its 2017 H1 results: Affected by factors such as revenue reform, the company achieved revenue of 864 million yuan in the first half of the year, a year-on-year decrease of 1.14%; the company achieved net profit of 76.8 million yuan in the first half of the year, an increase of 8.68% over the previous year, and net profit of 75 million yuan after deducting net profit from back to mother, an increase of 8.29% over the previous year. Against the backdrop of a slowdown in food and beverage consumption growth and diversification and segmentation of business formats, the company maintained relatively steady operating performance. Cost control is the key to improving performance: H1's gross margin in '17 was 62.53%, up 2.89pct from the same period last year; the cost ratio for the period was 50.70%, including sales expenses ratio 36.59%, management expense ratio 13.98%, and financial expense ratio 0.12%, up 3.17pct, 0.92pct, and -0.27pct respectively from the same period last year (the decrease in financial expenses ratio was relatively low due to the increase in online Internet payments); Effective cost control led to a net interest rate increase of 0.80 pct compared to the same period last year , to 8.89%. In the main catering business, the company's stores grew steadily: 2 new direct-run stores were opened in the first half of the year, reaching 35; 1 new franchise store was opened, reaching 71. At the same time, focusing on holiday marketing, revenue reached 115 million yuan during the 19-day Spring Festival and 4 long holidays, an increase of 5.82% over the previous year. In terms of product sales, the company continued to develop e-commerce platforms: e-commerce business centers shipped 23.2 million yuan in the first half of the year, an increase of 40% over the previous year. Since e-commerce carnivals generally stagger traditional holidays, e-commerce sales can be expected to effectively complement the catering business on non-holidays. Endogenous and extrinsic strategies are being implemented together, and management innovation and efficiency improvements brought about by changes in investment stocks and management are gradually being unleashed. (1) At the endogenous level, actively catering to the trend of food and beverage market segmentation, the company divided existing direct-run restaurants into three categories: tourist stores, community stores, and shopping mall stores, and took the lead in launching a new unified menu in 4 “tourist” stores, including Quanju Deheping Store, Qianmen Store, Wangfujing Store, and Olympic Village Store, taking the first step in brand classification and management to drive performance through refined management. (2) At the epitaxial level, the company has established a multi-brand development strategy. Considering the company's abundant cash flow, foreign cooperation and acquisitions are expected to open up new growth space. Earlier, the company had officially signed a “Letter of Intent to Acquire Equity” with “Little Chef Tangcheng”, which has more potential room for improvement in brand marketing, operating mechanisms, and business development. Financial forecasts and investment suggestions take into account the slowdown in the pace of opening stores. The company expects the company to maintain “increase in holdings” at an average of 45 times PE over the past 8 years, corresponding to a target price of 22.50 yuan, according to an average of 0.50/0.56/0.62 yuan in 17-19. Risks suggest food safety issues, upward pressure on costs, lower than expected development of the banquet market and food industry, etc.

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