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众泰汽车(000980):SUV销量月度持续环比回升

東方證券 ·  Sep 11, 2017 00:00  · Researches

Core view: In August, SUV sales increased significantly from month to month. In August, sales of traditional passenger cars were 21,800 units, up 18.7% month-on-month, and April reached the lowest point in monthly sales and continued to rise for 4 months. Among them, SUVs were the main contributor. In August, 191,000 SUVs were sold, an increase of 20.1% over the previous month, achieving positive month-on-month growth for 4 consecutive months; the T700 and T600 were the main contributors to SUV sales. Since the launch of the T700 in June, the sales volume of the T700 reached 7014 units in August, an increase of 61% over the previous month, and the sales volume of the remodeled T600 was 6146 units, an increase of 14% over the previous month. It is expected that the company's SUV sales volume will continue to rise in September. The sales volume of new energy vehicles declined month-on-month in August, and it is expected that the second half of the year will continue to grow at a high rate. In August, sales of pure electric passenger vehicles were 1,287 units, down 52.5% from month to month; the month-on-month decline in sales of new energy vehicles in August was mainly affected by E20 and Cloud 100 sales, with cumulative sales of 17,000 units in January-August, up 22.8% year on year. The fourth quarter is the peak sales season for new energy vehicles. It is expected that the overall growth rate of pure electric passenger vehicles will continue to grow at a high rate in the second half of the year. The second quarter was a low point in the company's sales volume, and it is expected that the sales volume and profit for the second half of the year will increase month-on-month. The first half of the year was affected by sluggish demand in the passenger car industry and the company's lack of new cars, and the company's traditional passenger car sales declined year-on-year. As demand in the passenger car industry picked up in the 3rd quarter and the company's new SUVs were launched, quarterly sales and profit are expected to increase month-on-month. Traditional cars and new energy vehicles drive two-wheel drive profit growth. The company's traditional passenger cars are mainly SUVs, and sales volume has grown rapidly in recent years. New energy vehicles are mainly pure electric vehicles. In 2016, the revenue share of traditional cars and new energy vehicles was 79% and 12%, respectively. Sales of traditional passenger cars declined in the first half of the year due to the slowdown in industry growth. As SUV sales continued to rise, the company is expected to achieve two-wheel drive for traditional cars and new energy vehicles and maintain steady growth. Financial forecasts and investment recommendations forecast EPS of 0.59, 1.03, and 1.32 yuan in 2017-2019. Referring to comparable companies, the company was given 21 times the average PE valuation in 2017. The preparation for the EPS exam was 0.75 yuan for the full year of 2017, and the target price was 15.75 yuan, maintaining the buying rating. Risk warning: Sales of SUVs and other models and new energy vehicles fell short of expectations, and capital raised by issuing shares was lost

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