Summary of the report:
1. Foreign vehicle factories start a large production cycle, battery factories accelerate the expansion of new capacity, lithium equipment enterprises benefit most, anchoring more than 20 billion of the annual market space in the next three years. In the next five years, the new energy vehicle market will continue to grow at a rate of 20% and 40%. With the strong terminal demand, the major car factories have stepped up the layout of new energy vehicles one after another. Downstream car factories expand production, leading to the rapid growth of upstream lithium battery demand, the major battery factories have expanded production. It is estimated that the equipment market space will exceed 20 billion yuan from 2019 to 2021. The high value of the front equipment accounts for about 40% of the lithium equipment investment, and the coating machine is the core of the front equipment, accounting for about 50-70% of the front-end equipment investment. Lithium power equipment and front coating equipment will benefit greatly.
2. Haoneng lithium electric coating machine is technologically advanced, highly recognized by major customers and excellent performance-to-price ratio, which is expected to further increase its market share and become the leader in the subdivision field of coating machine. Haoneng Technology, a subsidiary of Keheng, is one of the leading lithium coating equipment in China. In 2018, CATL bid, Haoneng Technology won the bid for 18 double-layer high-speed coating machines and all roll slitting equipment, accounting for more than 50% of the former section. At present, the order of Haoneng Technology is more than 1.2 billion yuan. with advanced technology, excellent performance-to-price ratio and good customer reputation, the company is expected to further seize the market, get more customer orders and become a leader in the field of lithium-ion coating machine.
3. The volume of high-end cathode materials in Anglo-German Phase II is gradually increasing, and the material business is expected to turn losses into profits. Keheng currently has a production capacity of 11000 tons of cathode materials and 5000 tons of customized customers under construction. Anglo-German base capacity design all can do Sanyuan 811 cathode materials, to be cut into stable customers will gradually release profits.
Key recommendation-recommended to buy [Ke Heng shares]: profit forecast and valuation. Without considering the consolidated statement of the company to be acquired, it is estimated that the net profit of the company from 2019 to 2021 is 1.03,1.28,224 million yuan respectively, EPS is 0.48,0.60,1.06 yuan respectively, corresponding to PE is 34,27,15 times respectively, and is given a "buy" rating.
Risk hint: the expansion of battery factory is not as expected, and the sales of new energy vehicles are not as expected.
