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大商股份(600694):安全边际高 盈利趋于稳健

海通證券 ·  Jul 4, 2019 00:00  · Researches

A leading commercial company in Northeast China, the majority shareholders continue to increase their holdings, showing confidence. ① Revenue in 2018 fell 10.8% to 23.9 billion yuan, and net profit to mother increased 12.7% to 990 million yuan. Revenue and net profit CAGR for 2011-18 were -3% and 20% respectively; by the end of 2018, it had 79 department stores, 39 supermarkets, 26 electronics stores, and a total of 144 stores. ② The actual controller of the company is Dashang Group and Dashang Investment Management. 2015-1Q2019 continued to increase its holdings to 27.05%. The two shareholders, Anbang Insurance, had a cumulative increase of 15% at the end of 2015. The estimated average holding costs were 35.96 yuan/share and 33.53 yuan/share, respectively. The closing price of 2019/7/3 (28.05 yuan/share) was discounted by 22% and 16.33%, respectively, compared to the cost of holding shares. In May 2017, the majority shareholders promised to resolve competition issues in the industry within 3 years. Expansion path: Continuously encrypt Northeast China and gradually expand North China. ① Region: Entered Liaoning and Heilongjiang in 1998; entered North China in 2005, focusing on developing the two provinces of Shandong and Henan, expanding stores through mergers and acquisitions/self-building/leasing; ② Business format: The company mainly focused on department stores in the early stages, tested the waters of real estate business in 1993, began strengthening hypermarket construction in 2001, and got involved in the home appliance chain in 2003; ③ Business district: The company's regional expansion was earlier, and most of the stores were concentrated in the core business district of the city. Business management: Renovate and upgrade old stores to strengthen incentives to improve human efficiency. ① Full business format and multi-business operation: with department stores/shopping centers as the main force, with the supermarket electronics business, segmenting the customer base and dividing the high-end department store McKellar, the popular department store Qiansheng, and the shopping center New Mart to create a new business name “Dashang City Park” and build a commercial complex; ② Old store restructuring, joint operation and leasing: In 2016-18, 10 renovation projects including Daqing Department Store and Qingdao McKellar were completed. The gross profit of some major stores stopped falling and rebounded. 1. The overall investment project plan, which had not yet been completed by the end of 2018 5.2 billion yuan; 77.45 million yuan still needs to be invested; ③ “Entrepreneurial partnership” & “joint marketing contract”: core key investment and entrepreneurship, grassroots employees oversold and distributed incremental profits. In 2018, the number of employees fell 12% to 16,000, and gross profit per capita increased 16% to 392,000 yuan/person. Finance & Valuation: Profitability is stable, margin of safety & revaluation value is high. ① Gross profit rebounded steadily, labor/gross profit declined: gross profit stopped falling and rebounded in 2018, and labor/gross profit declined significantly; ② The interest-bearing debt ratio was low, profits were good and stable: net cash flow from operating activities continued to be higher than capital expenses since 2004, and the interest-bearing debt ratio remained low. After deducting non-net interest rates, the non-ROE industry took the lead; ③ High proportion of self-owned properties: Equity owned properties accounted for 39% of 1.7 million square meters of equity ownership (RNAV)) 20.8 billion yuan, compared to the 2019/7/3 market The value has 1.52 times room; ④ The bottom of the valuation history: PB-LF, PE-TTM, and PS-TTM (2019/7/3) were 1.0/8.0/0.4 times respectively, all at historical and industry lows. Profit forecast and valuation: Estimated revenue for 2019-2021 will be 22.9 billion yuan, 22.6 billion yuan, and net profit to mother will be 1.08 billion yuan, 1.13 billion yuan and 1.18 billion yuan respectively, up 9.6%, 4.1%, and 4.5% year-on-year increases. The 2019-2021 EPS is 3.68 yuan, 3.84 yuan and 4.01 yuan, respectively. The reference industry is given 9-11 times PE in 2019, corresponding to a reasonable value range of 33.16-40.53 yuan. The initial coverage gives “superior to the market” ” Investment ratings. Risk warning: Market competition intensified; the results of the renovation of old stores fell short of expectations; the development of innovative business formats fell short of expectations; financial data fluctuated greatly.

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