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新研股份(300159):明日宇航持续向好 军民融合前景广阔

太平洋證券 ·  Oct 25, 2017 00:00  · Researches

Incident: The company released its report for the third quarter of 2017. From January to September 2017, the company achieved operating income of 1,051 million yuan, an increase of 37.41%; net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies was 257 million yuan, an increase of 139.4% year on year; basic earnings per share were 0.17 yuan, up 139.5% year on year. Agricultural machinery used sales and production to respond to adjustments, and the commercial aerospace sector took the lead. Affected by factors such as the adjustment of the amount of the agricultural machinery purchase subsidy policy, the company's agricultural machinery business declined, and in an environment where the market was sluggish, it dealt with the adjustments through strategies such as sales and production determination. The company invested in the establishment of Tibet Tomorrow Aerospace Satellite Technology Co., Ltd. last year, and began to lay out high-throughput broadband communication commercial satellite business. This year, it completed technical verification and commercial negotiations for the “Tomorrow Aerospace 1” satellite, and has the conditions and foundation for signing a formal contract at any time. We believe that the company's business layout in the satellite field has formed a clear first-mover advantage. As China's commercial space market gradually opens up to private capital, it will open up more room for the company to grow. Tomorrow, aerospace will continue to improve, and the prospects for civil-military integration are broad. In terms of military business, the company set up three branches of Hebei Aerospace, Tianjin Aerospace, and Shenyang Aerospace, and established Guizhou Tomorrow Aerospace to participate in the construction of the Guizhou Civil-Military Integration Demonstration Zone, jointly design and develop new aircraft with China Airlines Guifei, jointly develop medium thrust aero-engines with Liyang Company, China Aviation Technology, etc., and build flexible manufacturing production lines for civil aviation sheet welding components/units, making steady progress towards leading enterprises in the military. In terms of the civil aircraft business, the company uses the C929 project as the lead to enter key components and parts of large aircraft composites. At the same time, it also actively participated in the early development of the commercial CJ-2000, and cooperated with well-known international aviation companies such as Airbus and Boeing to jointly undertake international subcontracting of civil aircraft and engines. We believe that tomorrow Aerospace will be able to complete its performance promise of a net profit of more than 400 million yuan this year. As the company's layout in the aerospace industry chain is further improved, tomorrow Aerospace will show a continuous positive development trend. Profit forecast and investment rating: The company's net profit for 2017-2019 is estimated to be about 491 million yuan, 734 million yuan, and 1,041 million yuan, EPS is 0.33 yuan, 0.49 yuan, and 0.70 yuan, corresponding PE is 37 times, 25 times, and 18 times, maintaining a “buy” rating.

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