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麦达数字(002137):基数效应业绩下滑 静待SAAS破局开花

廣證恆生 ·  Oct 23, 2017 00:00  · Researches

Incidents: The company's three-quarter report announcement shows that the company achieved operating income of 627 million yuan in the first three quarters of 2017, an increase of 9.61% year on year; net profit of 61.09 million, a year-on-year decrease of 56.5%; net profit after deduction of 43.36 million, an increase of 81.35%; and earnings per share of 0.11, a year-on-year decrease of 57.01%. According to the announcement at the same time, the company's net profit for 2017 is expected to change between 26 million and 100 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of -82.67% to -33.33%. The core view is that overall gross margin increased, and Q4 customer business progress affected the company's impairment: The sharp decline in the company's net profit in the first three quarters was mainly due to the sale of 100% shares of the subsidiary Yuantong Incubation in the same period last year to obtain investment income of 107.6581 million. This income led to a high net profit for the same period last year. The base effect caused the net profit of the first three quarters of this year to decline sharply; the net profit for the full year of 2017 was also expected to decline significantly year-on-year. Regardless of the impact of non-recurring profit and loss, the company achieved net profit of 43.36 million dollars in the first three quarters, an increase of 81.35% over the previous year. Thanks to the growth of the company's traditional LED and MES businesses: the company optimized the product structure through integration, dug deep into user needs, and benefited from the recovery of the integrated industry, and the product profit margin increased significantly. Judging from the interim report data, the revenue of LED lighting and consumer electronics businesses increased by 59.16% and 90.6%, respectively. In terms of digital marketing business, the company's bid adjustments optimized the business structure, and coherence were gradually reflected. The gross profit margin (27.28%) increased significantly and led to an increase in the overall profit level. The overall gross profit margin for the first three quarters was 26.07% (2017H1 gross profit margin 24.38%, 2016 gross profit margin 24.64%), and net profit was 25.39 million yuan in the third quarter, an increase of 152.26% over the previous year. The 50% increase in corresponding costs due to the equity incentive plan is expected to be distributed throughout 2017, so it will put some pressure on the annual performance in the short term. At the same time, given that the 2017 H1 digital marketing business restructuring reflects a revenue correction, and the development of the marketing sector still needs to observe the Q4 business progress of some downstream customers, concerns about this matter may have an impact on the company's annual impairment (including impairment of goodwill). The industry was officially changed to the Internet and related services, and the SaaS ecosystem was firmly established and perfected: the company completed the acquisition of three digital marketing companies including Shunwei in 2015 and participated in Guangzhou Kiwi; in 2016, leading SaaS companies that invested in the consumer goods industry and the SCRM segment respectively won marketing and six degrees of harmony. The customer groups of the two companies are highly coordinated and consistent, and it is expected that in the future, the company will achieve complementarity in resources and business. The company also invested six times during the reporting period and the main value-added distributor in China, Beijing Maida (formerly “Microlianda”), continued to improve the SaaS ecosystem matrix The successful transformation from traditional business to Internet business was completed, and the company's industry was officially changed to the Internet and related services. In the future, it will further improve the industrial pattern of integrating industry, investment and research. During the reporting period, the company acquired Beijing Maida, achieved six degrees of human and industrial chain integration, and appointed one of its founders, Mr. Gao Liqiang, as the director and president of the listed company; Mr. Gao Liqiang was fully responsible for the company's SaaS business and used his management and technical experience in computer software to accelerate the company's development. At the same time, the company announced a restricted equity incentive plan. A total of 44 core executives from the digital marketing sector participated and were deeply tied to technical personnel. The company improved its talent pool and retained key talents through various means to ensure the company's long-term sustainable development. On October 17, the company entered into a strategic partnership with Yihai Kerry Group on the Win-Win Marketplace platform, where the company participated in the bid, and the Saas 2.0 business continued to advance. Intrinsic and epitaxial integration, industrial investment and research to create a SaaS industry pattern: the company insists on transforming epitaxial mergers and acquisitions to endogenous growth, building its own industry circle, and building core competitiveness. Through the integration of industrial investment and research, the industrial layout achieves an integrated marketing industry platform with its own bids, strengthens the company's own R&D capabilities while empowering its SaaS platform and expanding the company's product and service radius. Industrial investment continues to focus on investing in industry-related targets such as Saas, big data, and cloud computing to achieve resource integration and industrial layout. Previously, the majority shareholders had set up industrial merger and acquisition funds to lock in the participation of previous high-quality targets, and in the future, they will use their own platforms and industrial capital advantages to build a more complete SaaS industry pattern. Profit forecast and valuation: We expect the company to achieve net profit of 0.81/1.01/128 million yuan in 2017-2019, corresponding to EPS: 0.14/0.18/0.22 yuan/share; corresponding to the current stock price valuation: 59/48/38 x PE, respectively. The company's integrated industrial pattern of industrial investment and research helps to continue to develop around enterprise-level SaaS services, build a SaaS ecosystem, continue to pay attention to the company's layout in the Saas field, and give careful recommendation ratings. Risk warning: The company's enterprise-grade SaaS is not progressing smoothly, industry growth is slowing down, and goodwill risks.

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