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景峰医药(000908):战略聚焦高端仿制药 持续并购整合升级制药版图

廣證恆生 ·  Jun 5, 2018 00:00  · Researches

The strategy focuses on “high-end generic drugs”. Continued mergers and acquisitions, integration, upgrading, and optimization of pharmaceutical assets in 2015-2017, achieved phased results. The company followed the path of generic drug industrialization in line with the international community, continuously improved the pharmaceutical industry chain, continued mergers and acquisitions and integrated pharmaceutical assets in 2015-2017, and transformed into a high-end generic drug enterprise, achieving good results. (1) Shanghai Jingfeng: The growth rate of sodium hyaluronate injections in the orthopedic and ophthalmology market is about 20%. In 2017, Jingfeng's sodium hyaluronate revenue scale was about 230 million yuan, accounting for about 10% of the PDB sample hospital market share, ranking second among domestic enterprises; at present, it has completed the technical improvement and production capacity expansion project of the long-acting sodium hyaluronate production line. Among them, the long-acting hyaluronate JZC11 has received clinical trial approval; Shanghai Jingfeng's innovative drugs and high-end generic drugs are abundant, and the JS01 anti-tumor liposome project has completed the pharmaceutical research quality trial stage and pilot testing, and the product has reached the expected stage of pharmaceutical research. Level, expected Production approved for registration can be carried out in 2018; the JZC23 anti-tumor liposome has obtained 2 clinical approvals for category 1.6 and category 5; the JZB01 project has passed the CDE technical review and is in phase I clinical preparation; the first phase clinical study of the JZB28 project has completed 50% of the participants; and the JZC13 emulsion project has completed registration and on-site verification, and is in clinical approval. (2) Guizhou Jingfeng: The revenue and sales of Shenxiao glucose injection were about 1.05 billion dollars in 2017, and the growth rate has slowed. The total number of target provinces in the past year reached 13, with no obvious price reduction trend, and is expected to remain stable in 2018; the R&D products tirofiban hydrochloride injection and tirofiban hydrochloride sodium chloride injection are already in the review and production stage, and are expected to be listed in 2018; (3) Dalian Deze: The revenue scale of olivine in 2017 was about 555 million, and the compound growth rate in the past five years has reached 25.45%. Considering that olivine injection is the only liposomal oral dosage form that targets tumor cells, we believe it is expected to maintain a growth rate of about 20% in the next three years; (4) Guizhou Jingcheng: 2017 revenue reached 280 million, products were mainly solid oral preparations. The high incidence of influenza in early 2018, especially children accounted for the majority of people with influenza, driving the increase in sales of children's rejuvenation granules+increasing marketing and promotion efforts to promote the growth of oral preparations such as Le Mak and Mind Ning, and it is expected that Jingcheng will achieve 30% growth in 2018; (5) Hainan Jinrui: Start 4: One injection Product consistency evaluation work, namely clindamycin phosphate, irinotecan hydrochloride injection, injectable pemetrexed disodium, and injectable gemcitabine hydrochloride. The latter 3 are clinical first-line treatment drugs recommended by authoritative guidelines in the field of anti-cancer; the consistency evaluation of gemcitabine was first carried out by CDE on April 26, 2018. If the consistency evaluation passes, it is expected that it will be a good opportunity in terms of winning price and sales volume; (6) Huiju Pharmaceutical: With 14 GMP APIs, it is expected that they will pass FDA certification in batches, excellent environmental protection standards, active and innovative pharmaceutical companies in recent years Cooperate to promote the development and marketing of APIs and veterinary drugs. Investment/joint venture R&D innovation enterprises to vigorously enrich the company's product pipeline and pave the way for the company's medium- to long-term development (1) R&D investment in the past four years has grown by more than 20%, with R&D investment reaching 184 million yuan in 2017, an increase of 22.78% over the previous year; (2) US Shangjin: Currently, it has completed the ANDA declaration for SG100, a generic drug for instant oral solid preparation. This product is used to suppress central nervous system excitement. It is expected that in the next two years, 6-8 ANDA declarations for generic drugs, including injections, oral solid preparations, and topical preparations, and 4-6 products, and process and formulation studies for 4-6 products will be launched and sold in the US one after another, achieving a profit of about 15 million US dollars; (3) New products: the development of innovative drug fusion protein AAFP, which is a completely innovative variety from molecular structure to mechanism of action, suitable for eradicating all allergic diseases caused by allergens, such as allergic asthma and allergic rhinitis, is currently undergoing phase I clinical trials, with broad market prospects. Profit forecast and valuation: The overall operation of the company's main business is stable. We assume that the company will begin to gradually divest loss-making Lianton Medical assets in the second half of 2018. Losses are reduced. The company's EPS in 2018-2020 is expected to reach 0.23/0.25/0.28, respectively, and corresponding PE is 24/22/20, respectively, with initial coverage, giving a “highly recommended” rating risk warning: industry policy risk; risk of product failure to meet expectations; risk of falling short of expectations in R&D

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