Events:
The company released 2017 results KuaiBao: revenue in 2017 was 394 million yuan, an increase of 20.98 percent over the same period last year, and net profit was 59 million yuan, an increase of 15.99 percent over the same period last year, and basic earnings per share was 0.37 yuan.
Main points of investment:
The performance is slightly lower than expected, and the core growth logic remains unchanged.
The results disclosed this time are basically consistent with the performance forecasts disclosed at the end of January. overall, the annual results in 2017 are slightly lower than we had expected. it is speculated that the main reason is that the sales growth of the heavy truck market slowed down in the fourth quarter, so that the company failed to achieve rapid growth in the fourth quarter. On the other hand, the company attaches great importance to R & D investment, especially after listing, the company's business layout is in full swing, the R & D expenditure rate has risen sharply, 17H1, the company's R & D expenses account for more than 7% of revenue (year-on-year + 1.4pct).
Looking forward to the next few years, the logic that the company will benefit from product upgrading in the shifter industry remains unchanged: the market space for electronic shifters is more than 5 billion yuan (2020). As one of the first companies in independent parts enterprises to mass-produce electronic shifters, the company will greatly benefit from the rapid growth of the industry. In 2018, under the neutral forecast, the electronic shift products alone are expected to bring more than 20% performance growth to the company, and the individual product performance is more flexible.
There are many potential customers, and the performance is worth looking forward to.
As a traditional commercial vehicle parts company, the company began to transform to passenger cars around 2010 (passenger car business accounted for 34% in 2013 and about 50% in 2016). The original customer is only SAIC GM + second and third line independent, and the overall matching quantity is less. due to the accumulation of research and development and supporting experience, the company has won GM global orders and domestic first-line independent car orders in recent years. That is, the turning point of the company's accelerated transformation to the passenger car field, we are optimistic about the company's growth path of "accelerated customer penetration of passenger cars", "accelerated product upgrading" and "new product volume". The company has a small performance base and large performance flexibility. the realization of rapid growth is worth looking forward to.
High-quality and high-speed growth target, maintain "recommended" rating
It is estimated that in 18-19, the EPS of the company will be 0.58,0.77 yuan per share respectively, and corresponding to the current price, the PE will be 27 and 20 times respectively, maintaining the "recommended" rating.
Risk hint: sales of commercial vehicles fall short of expectations; sales of Zhongtai and Jianghuai cars drop sharply, etc.
