The gearbox is a key component of the powertrain, accounting for 10% of the vehicle cost.
The gearbox is the core component of the automobile powertrain system, which plays the role of connecting the engine and the driving system and transmitting power, and its average value accounts for about 10% of the whole vehicle.
Gearboxes are mainly divided into two types: manual gearbox and automatic gearbox. Automatic gearbox can be divided into two types: AT/AMT/DCT and CVT. The domestic automatic transmission market is mainly divided into three categories: AT, CVT and DCT
In 2016, the market size of CVT in China was 26.8 billion yuan, accounting for about 20% of the whole automatic gearbox market.
CVT has high performance-to-price ratio, less fuel consumption and more stable transmission.
Compared with AT and DCT, CVT does not rely on gear shift, has higher shift efficiency and can effectively reduce fuel consumption.
CVT does not have a clear gear, can achieve the whole process of stepless transmission, the speed change of the vehicle is more stable.
The cost of CVT in automatic transmission is lower than that of AT and DCT.
Consumption upgrade, CVT is expected to replace MT
There is still a lot of market space for automatic transmission in our country. The domestic road situation is more congested than that of the United States and Japan. At present, the proportion of automatic blocking in North America and Japan has reached 94% and 83%.
From the point of view of the product structure of automatic transmission, North America, Europe and China are dominated by AT, while Japan is dominated by CVT. CVT has a high performance-to-price ratio and is relatively sensitive to the price of its own brands and small-engine car market. CVT is expected to quickly replace MT.
The market space of autonomous automatic transmission is huge.
The penetration rate of automatic transmission in China's passenger car market increased rapidly to 50.27% in 2017 from 33.74% in 2013. In the context of consumption upgrading, we expect this trend to continue in the next few years.
Although the overall penetration rate of automatic block in China's passenger car market is more than 50%, the penetration rate of independent brands is only about 35%. The next few years will be a period of accelerated increase in the penetration rate of automatic block of independent brands.
It is estimated that the market size of autonomous automatic transmission will exceed 60 billion yuan in 2020.
Major transmission manufacturer
Transmission manufacturers are divided into mainframe factories and independent transmission suppliers, the latter are mainly Zaifu, Aishin, Getrarch and so on.
Production capacity planning of major transmission manufacturers
The main independent vehicle factories and independent transmission suppliers have made positive plans for the future production capacity of automatic transmission.
Bunch: giant of CVT products
In October 2017, the listed company completed the acquisition of 100% stake in Oriental Yisheng and indirectly controlled Bunge Group. The transaction consideration is 7.98 billion yuan.
Bunch Group is a world-renowned independent manufacturer of automotive automatic transmissions, focusing on R & D, production and sales of automotive transmissions, mainly CVT, and is committed to developing DCT, hybrid assembly systems and pure electric powertrain systems.
At present, among the domestic supporting CVT models, the Japanese system is mainly matched by Japan Gatco, and bunch is in the leading position in its own brand. Bunch's main customers include Geely Automobile, Dongfeng Motor and Proton Motor.
Bunch CVT has more economic advantages.
In 2017, the average price of CVT products of main competitors is about 8900 yuan per unit (estimated), and that of bunch is about 8400 yuan per unit. The price of competitors' products is higher than that of bunch, which is mainly due to the use of hydraulic torque converters in the mainstream CVT of the market.
The unit price of hydraulic torque converter is about 600-700 yuan per set.
In comparison, bunch's products are more economical.
Bunch downstream customers are of high quality, with a gross profit margin of more than 30%.
Bunky's main customers include domestic independent brand car factories such as Geely, Jianghuai, Haima, Dongfeng, as well as foreign customers such as Baoteng Automobile. At present, Bunge Group is actively exploring foreign markets such as Iran and India.
In 2017, the average price of the company's CVT products was 8382 yuan per Taiwan, down 2.59% from the same period last year.
The company's gross profit margin is relatively stable, 2017 comprehensive gross profit margin reached 31.16%.
Production and sales of CVT are booming, and bunch's performance is expected to increase.
At the end of 2017, the company has a production capacity of 1.2 million CVT units, and the company plans to expand its annual production capacity of 1.2 million CVT units on the basis of existing production capacity.
In 2017, bunch CVT transmission sales totaled 710000 units, an increase of 72.09 percent over the same period last year, with a net profit of 1131 yuan per unit.
Bond's original shareholder promised that the net profit of Bunge (Ningbo Oriental Yisheng) from 2017 to 2019 would not be lower than:
752 million 、 917 million 、 1.118 billion . Bunch Company deducted 803 million yuan from non-net profit in 2017, exceeding its performance commitment.
ARC: second in global market share of gas generators
In January 2017, the company completed the acquisition of 100% equity interest in Ningbo Haosheng and indirectly controlled ARC Group. The transaction consideration is 2.85 billion yuan.
ARC specializes in gas generators. Among the independent suppliers of gas generators, it has the second market share in the world and has seven production bases in four countries around the world.
The gas generator is the core component of the airbag, which is mainly composed of detonator, generating agent, diffusion tube and so on. When the car is hit, the detonator ignites the agent and releases a large amount of gas to fill the airbag to protect the safety of drivers and passengers.
Takata event fermentation, mixed gas generator benefits
There are two main technical routes of gas generator, one is pyrotechnic generator represented by Takata, and the other is mixed gas generator represented by ARC. At present, the market is dominated by pyrotechnic generators, with hybrid gas generators accounting for 10%.
ARC is the absolute leader in the field of hybrid gas generators, with a market share of 90%.
In recent years, the Takata incident continues to ferment, the major car companies began to turn their attention to the hybrid gas generator, ARC will continue to benefit.
The compound growth rate of downstream airbag demand is 15%.
At present, the value of domestic bicycle safety parts is only 200 US dollars, which is far lower than North America, Western Europe and other developed countries, and also lower than the global average of 290 US dollars.
With the upgrading of China's consumption and the improvement of residents' safety awareness, there is still room for obvious improvement in the number of domestic bicycle airbags.
It is estimated that the demand for airbags in China will reach 35 million sets in 2020, with a compound growth rate of 15% from 2016 to 2020.
ARC products enter the global mainstream airbag suppliers
ARC gas generator products can be equipped with driver airbag, passenger airbag, side airbag and so on, among which the gas generator for passenger airbag is the company's main product, accounting for more than 60% of ARC revenue.
ARC directly supplies airbag manufacturers such as Otto Liv, Trina, Takata, Bride, Hyundai Mobis and Toyota synthetic.
ARC products include Cadillac ATS/CTS, BMW i3, Lexus RX and so on.
ARC overfulfilled its performance commitments in 2017
The domestic market has become the main source of performance of ARC. In 2017, ARC accounted for 60 per cent of the domestic market, but the domestic market accounted for more than 80 per cent of gross profit.
The original shareholder of ARC promised that the net profit of ARC deduction from 2017 to 2019 would not be less than 1.68,2.62 and 326 million. In 2017, ARC deducted 272 million yuan in non-net profit, substantially exceeding its performance commitments.
Risk hint
Car sales fell short of expectations
The promotion of automatic gearbox is not as expected.
The real estate industry is in a recession.
The problem of the large proportion of shareholders' equity pledge