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金溢科技(002869):重量级政策出台 深度利好ETC 行业龙头

天風證券 ·  Jun 12, 2019 00:00  · Researches

Genuine ETC equipment leader, ETC equipment accounts for more than 95% of revenue. The company that continues to lead sales is a pure ETC equipment company. Among them, highway ETC equipment accounts for more than 95% of the company's revenue every year; the company is also a leading ETC equipment company. Since 2015, the company's annual sales volume of OBU equipment has remained above 5 million units, and the average annual sales volume of RSU equipment also exceeds 2,200 sets. The sales volume of both side equipment is number one in the market. Policies drive the popularity of ETC equipment, and the company's revenue is expected to more than double. According to historical experience, the ETC market is greatly affected by the policy. We expect this year's “abolition of provincial toll gates” policy to leverage the ETC equipment market of over 7 billion dollars this year. If the plan is carried out smoothly, we expect equipment factory orders to rise significantly in June-July this year. At the same time, we expect the ETC equipment market to reach 71.4 billion or 7.37 billion in 2019; as an industry leader, the entire business line will benefit deeply from this event. The company's revenue is expected to grow 262% in 2019. Expanding from ETC to ETC+ and V2X, the smart transportation layout brings new growth points. This “abolition of provincial toll gates” is expected to greatly increase the penetration rate of ETC users and is expected to bring a large number of potential customers to ETC application scenarios that the company has laid out in recent years; the company's original dual-mode technology in smart parking applications has a high recognition rate and has now been successfully used in many key projects across the country; the company is currently cooperating with top domestic transportation research institutions to actively promote the development of V2X technology, and will soon launch C-V2X application products. These new smart transportation applications are expected to continue with ETC equipment and become a new performance growth point for the company. The first coverage gave ratings to increase holdings, which was policy-driven and deeply beneficial to industry leaders. Based on this, we estimate that the company's net profit for 2019-2021 will be 1.80, 2.16, and 258 million yuan, respectively, with corresponding EPS of 1.53, 1.83, and 2.19 yuan. Referring to comparable companies in the industry, we gave the company 23 times PE in 2019, with a corresponding target market value of 4.145 billion yuan. Risk warning: ETC equipment is being promoted faster than expected, and ETC equipment prices have dropped more than expected

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