The company forecasts a net profit of 260 million-315 million yuan and a deduction of 44 million-99 million yuan for 2019. The company's Vietnam plant is gradually put into production to eliminate Sino-US trade frictions and disturbances, and future profits are expected to continue to repair and enter the cycle of quality improvement and cost reduction. Taking into account the investment income from the transfer of Beijing Petra shares confirmed by the company, the company's EPS forecast for 2019-21 is 0.18pm 0.11max 0.13 yuan (the original forecast is 0.10pm 0.11max 0.12 yuan), corresponding to the 25-41-34 times of PE, and the target price is 5.50yuan (corresponding to 31 times PE in 2019), maintaining the "overweight" rating.
The forecast return to the mother net profit is 260 million-315 million yuan, deducting 44 million-99 million yuan. The company issued a semi-annual performance forecast on June 12. It is expected that the net profit for 2019 will be about 260 million-315 million yuan, a sharp increase of 134.65%, 184.28% over the same period last year. The company confirmed that the investment income of 50% of its subsidiary Beijing Petra is 216 million yuan. After the transfer, the company will no longer hold Beijing Petra shares. According to the company's forecast, the non-return net profit will be deducted from 44 million to 99 million yuan in 2019, an increase of-51.33% and 9.88% over the same period last year.
Profits are under pressure in the first quarter and are expected to repair in the second quarter. The company reported revenue of 2.086 billion yuan in the first quarter (year-on-year + 7.33%, the same below), which is due to the expansion of production and marketing scale. The return to parent / deduction non-net profit is respectively-0.21 pesque 0.26 million yuan (- 167.64% torque 223.28%). The profit is under pressure because the trade friction between China and the United States has led to an increase in tariffs on the company's exports to the United States and an increase in the cost of importing electronic components from the United States. To this end, the company implemented the industrial transfer strategy to transfer the household appliance motor production line to the Vietnam factory, which was put into production in the first half of 2019. From the performance forecast, the company's non-return net profit deducted in the second quarter has been improved, and the company's industrial transfer strategy has been initially effective. We conclude that the strategy will further repair the company's profitability in the third quarter and the company will enter the cycle of quality improvement and cost reduction.
With the addition of fuel cells, the layout of the whole industry chain has been initially completed. The company is one of the early companies in the fuel cell industry in China. The company quickly grasps the fuel cell manufacturing capacity through epitaxial expansion, and uses its own electric drive customer channel to supply fuel cell products to ZTO Express bus, Dongfeng Industrial and other commercial vehicle customers, and shipped 600 fuel cell systems in 2018. At present, the company has laid out the links of hydrogen storage, system integration and core components compressor, and announced in April 2019 that it intends to acquire a 20% stake in Shanghai, a domestic fuel cell leader, and intensively increase the layout of fuel cells. Fuel cell industrialization accelerated significantly in 2019, and the company is expected to take the lead in the market by relying on first-mover advantage and strong layout.
Risk factors: sales of new energy vehicles fall short of expectations and fuel cell industrialization falls short of expectations.
Investment advice: the company's Vietnam factory is gradually put into production to eliminate the disturbance of Sino-US trade frictions, and future profits are expected to continue to repair and enter the cycle of quality improvement and cost reduction. Taking into account the investment income from the transfer of Beijing Petra shares confirmed by the company, the company's EPS forecast for 2019-2021 is 0.18max 0.11max 0.13 yuan (the original forecast is 0.10max 0.11max 0.12 yuan), corresponding to the 25-41-36 times of PE, and the target price is 5.50yuan (corresponding to 31 times PE in 2019), maintaining the "overweight" rating.
