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湘潭电化(002125):锰酸锂正极材料需求增长超预期

浙商證券 ·  May 28, 2019 00:00  · Researches

Incident: Demand for lithium manganate is growing rapidly. According to statistics from Xinshu, 12 domestic lithium manganate manufacturers produced a total of 4,240 tons in April 2019, an increase of 43.2% over last year and 5.47% over the previous year. The total domestic lithium manganate production is expected to increase by more than 20% year on year throughout the year, with production close to 70,000 tons. Factors exceeding expectations: Production demand may exceed expectations, downstream demand growth may exceed expectations, and sales may exceed expectations. For example, the growth rate of lithium manganate production in April was 43%; we originally expected the overall demand growth rate of lithium manganate to be 18%. The factors that exceeded expectations stemmed from: -- The formal implementation of the new national standard for electric bicycles boosted lithium manganate market demand; -- The 2019 new energy vehicle subsidy policy was implemented on March 26, 2019. The lithium battery industry is moving towards the goal of cost reduction and efficiency. At the same time, ternary lithium manganate can reduce costs; at the same time, safety performance can be improved. Factors below expectations: Product price expectations are low, manganese ore prices and electrolytic manganese dioxide have declined. We previously anticipated that the company's electrolytic manganese dioxide prices will continue to rise. Currently, the overall price increase is lower than our expectations; the main reasons are: 1. The price of raw manganese ore has declined recently. 2. After the manufacturing value-added tax rate was lowered, the price of manganese dioxide was slightly favorable, falling by 500-800 yuan per ton; 3. The price of competitive lithium iron phosphate fell rapidly; Risk warning: -- The price of a raw material exceeds expectations -- the price of a material with cathode technology potential changes; profit forecasts; and The valuation estimates that the company's EPS in 2019-2021 (after conversion and dilution) will be 0.21, 0.33, 0.41 yuan/share, PE is 27 times, 18 times and 14 times, respectively; the 10% reduction in profit in 2019 is mainly due to a 10% reduction in product prices that fell short of expectations, and competitor lithium iron phosphate prices fell significantly, limiting terminal lithium manganate prices, maintaining the company's shareholding ratings, while continuing to pay attention to the performance contribution of the company's lithium manganate cathode materials and the performance of the company's participation in Hunan Yuneng New Energy.

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