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北部湾旅(603869):更名新智认知聚焦科技+旅游 中报预增43%-55%

中信建投證券 ·  Jul 17, 2018 00:00  · Researches

The incident company issued an announcement that it is expected to achieve in the first half of 2018:1) net profit to the mother will reach 125 million yuan to 135 million yuan, an increase of 43% to 55% over the previous year; 2) net profit after deducting non-net profit of 111 to 120 million yuan, an increase of 25 million yuan to 35 million yuan over the previous year, and an increase of 27% to 39% over the previous year. At the same time, the company name was changed from “Beibu Gulf Tourism Co., Ltd.” to “Xinzhi Cognitive Digital Technology Co., Ltd.”, and the stock abbreviation was changed from “Beibu Gulf Travel” to “Xinzhi Cognition”, and the stock code remained unchanged. The review industry recognized that the business maintained a growth trend and promoted the reversal of the company's performance. Judging from the 2018 Q1 data, the company lost 2.128 million yuan in net profit to the mother due to the cultivation period of scenic spots and weak profitability during the off-season. With revenue growth of 38.39%, net profit loss to mother was 2.128 million yuan, a decrease of 123.51%. According to the latest semi-annual results forecast, the company's performance has successfully resumed growth due to the rapid increase in industry perception solution business volume (smart public security, Xueliang project). According to pre-increase data, it can be estimated that the company's net profit in Q2 will reach 123-133 million yuan, an increase of 58%-71% over the same period last year, and performance will resume rapid growth. The industry perception solution business contributed profits, and the business became more clear after the name change. The company's business comes from two aspects: 1) the industry perception solution business, which mainly focuses on smart public security and Xueliang engineering; 2) the tourism business, which mainly focuses on marine tourist routes and other scenic spots (Dragon Tiger Mountain, Zushan in Qinhuangdao, etc.). Judging from the 2017 annual report, the industry perception solutions business contributed 67.14% of the company's revenue, while the travel business accounted for 29.85% of revenue. Looking at the business structure, although the overall gross profit margin of the travel business (45.39%) is higher than that of the industry perception solution business (35.09%), considering the tourism industry's long development period and return on investment cycle, the latter's performance growth trend will be higher than the former. With the travel business at a loss (loss of RMB 23.923 million in Q1 2018), the company's wholly-owned subsidiaries Xinzhi Cognition and Bokang Information contributed 87% of the company's net profit (2017). Therefore, the company's main performance now comes from the industry perception solutions business, and the name change makes the company's business more clear. Focusing on “technology+tourism”, it is worth looking forward to future business complementarity and collaboration. Although the company's two major businesses span a large span, there is still room for mutual promotion. According to the company's plan, it is expected that on the basis of ensuring stable profits, it will further focus on advantageous industries to achieve both revenue and profitability improvements: 1) Tourism business: Although the company's travel business is in a state of loss due to the long cultivation period, the company will use its own superior technology to empower the travel business and enhance the comfort of the travel experience through smart means. In the first half of 2018, the increase in passenger traffic on the Beiwei route also indicates that the profitability of the travel business is expected to increase. On the other hand, after the company transferred 5 subsidiaries that lost money in 2017 for 123 million yuan, the company will also focus more on high-quality business to accelerate the maturity of its travel business. 2) Industry awareness solution business: In the context of the rapidly growing “smart policing” and “Xueliang engineering” industries, the total demand growth rate is expected to remain at 15%. The company is expected to accelerate its decline in two or three cities with advanced technology and rich experience, and will become one of the main beneficiaries of industry growth. Investment advice: We believe that under the “technology+tourism” model, the company continuously optimizes and focuses on the main business, not only benefiting from the vast space of the smart security market, but also improving the quality of the tourism business through technical means. EPS is expected to be 1.06, 1.38, and 1.79 yuan respectively in 2018-2020. Currently, the corresponding PE prices are 17X, 13X, and 10X, respectively, covered for the first time, giving it an “increase in wealth” rating. Risk warning: Cash flow risk from accounts receivable; long travel training period; risk of force majeure such as major epidemics and natural disasters.

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