This report is read as follows:
Based on lead battery, the company actively distributes the field of fuel cell. In recent years, China has launched intensive policies to support the development of hydrogen fuel cells, and the company is expected to benefit deeply from this round of hydrogen energy market. The "overweight" rating is given for the first time, with a target price of 27.30 yuan.
Main points of investment:
For the first time, the "overweight" rating was given, with a target price of 27.30 yuan. Based on lead-acid battery business, the company actively distributes lithium-ion battery, hydrogen fuel cell and other fields. The market is worried that the company's lead battery development will encounter the ceiling and its growth is limited, but we believe that the company is earlier in lithium-ion battery (power battery recycling) and fuel cell layout, with the increasing demand for power battery recycling, as well as the acceleration of domestic fuel cell commercialization, the company's development is expected to reach a new level. It is estimated that the revenue of the company from 2019 to 2021 is 33.92,38.81 and 4.433 billion yuan respectively, and the net profit is 1.48,2.05 and 257 million yuan respectively, corresponding to EPS 0.42,0.58,0.73 yuan. Combined with the average valuation of comparable listed companies in 2019 is 29.82 times, taking into account the company's fuel cell business, given the target price of 27.30 yuan, corresponding to 2019 PE 65 times, for the first time to cover the "overweight" rating.
Based on lead battery, layout in the field of lithium-ion battery. Lead battery is the core business of the company, and battery revenue accounted for more than 75% of the company's total revenue from 2015 to 2018. In 2018, battery revenue was 2.282 billion yuan, accounting for 77.20% of revenue. At the same time, the company actively distributes the field of lithium-ion batteries, especially the recycling of power batteries. The company's revenue of lithium-ion batteries reached 476 million yuan in 2018. With the domestic power battery entering the stage of large-scale decommissioning, domestic power battery recycling is expected to reach 15 billion market space in 2023. The company has set up Hubei Xiongtao environmentally friendly battery to carry out echelon utilization and recycling business, which will enter the track of rapid development in the future.
With the acceleration of fuel cell commercialization, the development of the company is expected to reach a new level. The national and local policies have been continuously strengthened in the past two years, and the commercialization of fuel cells has been accelerated. The company has an early layout in the fuel cell field, covering hydrogen production, membrane electrodes, fuel cell stacks, fuel cell engine systems and so on. In 2018, the company's fuel cell business achieved revenue of 84 million yuan, with a gross profit margin of 49.75%. With the acceleration of domestic fuel cell commercialization, the development of the company is expected to reach a new level.
Catalyst: all localities step up efforts to promote fuel cell policies
Risk hint: competition in lead-acid batteries intensifies and fuel cell policy goes downhill.
