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睿见教育(06068.HK)事件点评:营收超预期毛利率提升 自建+扩建稳定推进

廣證恆生 ·  Apr 26, 2019 00:00  · Researches

Event: The company released the interim results report. Revenue for the reporting period was 836 million yuan, up 41.1% year on year, profit for the period was 189 million yuan, up 30.1% year on year, and core net profit was 216 million yuan, up 33.0% year on year. Revenue exceeded expectations, gross margin rebounded, and increased financial expenses curtailed profit release. Revenue during the reporting period was 835.55 million yuan, up 41.1% year on year, mainly due to an increase in the total number of students enrolled, an increase in average tuition and accommodation fees per student, and an increase in revenue from supporting services. Among them, revenue from supporting services increased by 0.8 pct to 30.7% year on year. The total number of students enrolled during the reporting period was 54,420, up 32.2% from the same period last year, and the average student tuition and accommodation fee increased 5% year on year; gross margin was 45.3%, up 1.1 pct from the same period last year, mainly due to the increase in tuition and accommodation fees for new students at **** Primary and Secondary School in Dongguan and Dongguan Guangzheng Experimental School; other income fell 56.09% year on year due to the decrease in government subsidies. We expect to receive government subsidies again in the second half of the year. Financial expenses increased 263.33% year over year due to an increase in loan amounts. The profit for the period was 189 million yuan. Due to the decline in other income, the increase in financial expenses was lower than the revenue growth rate, up 30.1% year on year. Based on the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area, new construction+expansion is progressing steadily. The company currently has 9 schools in the 18-19 semester, with a maximum long-term student capacity of 92,444. Currently, the utilization rate is only 59%; pre-paid tuition fees and accommodation fees for the new semester have increased by 32.6%, and growth visibility is high and certainty is strong. Subsequent campuses in Yunfu and Foshan will begin enrolling students in the next semester. In addition to future campuses such as Chaozhou, Jiangmen, and Guangzhou, the cumulative number of new students will exceed 31,180, with high growth visibility and certainty. Join hands with the government's industrial fund to accelerate the focus on school construction in the Greater Bay Area. The company and Guangzhou Fund set up an industrial fund with a total scale of 2.5 billion dollars, which will mainly invest in schools in the Greater Bay Area. Among them, the company will invest 700 million yuan, government funds will invest 300 million yuan, and the rest will be financed through channels including bank loans. The fund period is 7 years. With the government resources of the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Cultural Center, the company can obtain more support from local governments to run schools in the Greater Bay Area. At the same time, it is hoped that through fund leverage, the huge capital requirements for newly built schools in the early stages will be alleviated and campus expansion accelerated. Profit forecast: Without considering the impact of more newly built schools yet, we expect net profit for 19-20 to be 4.1/4.9 (+31%/+20%) billion yuan, corresponding to 19/16 times PE. Combined with the education industry's average PEG of around 1, we give a 25 times valuation, corresponding to 30% more stock price space. Combined with the company's high visibility, government resources are further stabilized, and it is expected that the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area will continue to grow and maintain a highly recommended rating. Risk warning: industry policy risk, school brand and operation risk, enrollment falls short of expectations

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