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证通电子(002197)深度报告:“金融科技+智慧城市”双轮驱动战略 IDC业务成公司增长亮点

廣證恆生 ·  Dec 11, 2018 00:00  · Researches

  The company is shifting from a single financial electronic business to a “fintech+smart city” two-wheel drive model. The company already has a high level of brand recognition in the field of financial electronics, and its cryptographic keyboard products have the highest market share in the domestic market. Among the top ten ATM manufacturers in the world, there are six companies that use the company's products. It is currently one of the companies with the largest number of PCI certified products in the world. The domestic market share of self-service terminals is around 25%. The company focuses on building overall smart city solutions while consolidating and increasing its share of the smart banking market. The new smart park construction project in Wangcheng District of Changsha City, government cloud, police cloud and other cloud value-added services have clearly boosted performance. In the first half of 2018, the IDC and cloud computing business grew 80.87% year-on-year, so the company is expected to break through growth bottlenecks and enter a new stage of development. The intelligent upgrading and transformation of bank branches is a long-term trend. Bank self-service terminals have room to explore potential, and customized capabilities help companies actively embrace the new retail market. Due to the impact of internet finance, major banks are actively promoting the transformation of smart outlets. Currently, the intelligent penetration rate of small and medium-sized banks is low, and there is still room for growth, and there are still nearly 125,000 branches to be intelligently transformed. In the first half of 2018, the company successfully tapped the incremental demand of Post Bank, Postbank, China Construction Bank and Bank of China, and estimated that the potential market space that bank self-service terminals can tap is 30 billion yuan. Furthermore, the popularity of mobile payments has turned new retail into an investment hotspot. There are about 5.8 million self-service vending machines in Japan and 6.91 million in the US. China currently has a very small inventory of vending machines of only 200,000 units. The future market size is estimated at 17,900 yuan per vending machine in 2015. The future market size of vending machines in China is at least 107.4 billion yuan. The company's new retail industry currently involves automatic ticketing and collection terminals at Wanda Cinemas, coffee machines, etc., which have become the company's new business driving force. The layout of Zentong Cloud's business segment is beginning to take shape, focusing on the five major distributed data centers in South China to build the Zentong Yunchuang cloud computing brand. Five large-scale data centers have been built in Shenzhen, Guangzhou, Dongguan and Changsha. The number of data center cabinets planned to be built is close to 15,000. The data centers are located in the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area and the central region, respectively. The location advantages are obvious, the layout of connected provinces, and the regional connectivity is strong, providing services to high-value customers such as Baidu, JD, and Ping An Group. Zentong Cloud is based on IDC's five major data centers and can provide infrastructure platform services and industry solutions such as cloud hosting, cloud storage, cloud security, and cloud disaster recovery. At the same time, it teamed up with Huawei to provide smart city solution services such as police cloud and government cloud for cities such as Changsha and Dongguan, and successfully built a smart government cloud platform for Changsha. Profit forecasts and suggestions: The company's net profit for 2018-2020 is estimated to be 54, 0.92, and 135 million yuan respectively, and the corresponding PE is 68x, 40x, and 27x respectively. The company's IDC business drove rapid growth in the company's performance in 2018-2020, and was recommended as a “highly recommended” rating for the first time. Risk warning: IDC cabinet rental falls short of expectations, and the return of accounts receivable falls short of expectations.

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