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深圳新星(603978)首次覆盖:高性能铝材需求扩张 公司有望量利齐增

萬聯證券 ·  May 16, 2019 00:00  · Researches

Key elements of the report: Shenzhen Xinxing is the world's largest aluminum grain refiner production line. It is also the only manufacturer specializing in aluminum grain refining agents with a complete industrial chain. Its business covers fluorite mining, fluoride salt manufacturing, and aluminum grain refiner production. As the downstream industry's demand for high-performance aluminum grain refiners increases and the widespread promotion of energy-saving flux agents, the company's performance is expected to improve dramatically. Key investment points: Product production technology is at the leading level in the industry: Currently, the company's main competitors are British LSM, American KBalloys, and Dutch KBM. Their industrial technology level is high, which basically represents the current leading level of technology in the aluminum grain refiner industry. Compared with the three companies mentioned above, Shenzhen Xinxing is slightly superior in terms of average crystal core size, average subcrystal core size, melt purification degree, and nucleation ability. The overall manufacturing technology of “aluminum grain refiner - aluminum-titanium-boron (carbon) alloy products” has reached the leading international level, and has gradually changed the pattern where the high-end aluminum grain refiner market has been monopolized by European and American companies for a long time. Demand for high-performance aluminum in the downstream industry has been expanding: Since 2018, the performance requirements for aluminum products in downstream applications have continued to increase, and the scale of use of aluminum products in military, aerospace, rail transit and other industries has continued to expand. High-end aluminum will become the main growth market in the future, and the proportion of high-performance aluminum grain refiners and high-end aluminum intermediate alloys will also increase, and the company is expected to quantify and increase profits. New energy-saving flux agents have broad prospects for development: through research, the company uses low molecular ratio potassium tetrafluoroaluminate as an aluminum electrolyte additive to reduce the electrolysis working temperature of the aluminum electrolysis production process and save at least 500 degrees of electricity per ton of aluminum. This technology lays the foundation for the aluminum electrolysis industry to achieve low temperature aluminum electrolysis energy saving technology. If this is promoted throughout the industry, China's electrolytic aluminum industry can save 12 billion degrees of electricity per year, while reducing greenhouse gas emissions such as carbon dioxide by 8.6 million tons, with remarkable economic and social benefits. In recent years, China's electrolytic aluminum production has been growing steadily. It is expected that the demand for potassium fluoroaluminate in the field of electrolytic aluminum will increase to 256,000 tons by 2020. Profit forecast and investment advice: The company's net profit due to mother in 2019-2021 is estimated to be 142 million, 171 million, and 193 million. The PE corresponding to the closing price of 1,885 yuan is 23.50, 19.50, and 17.24 times, respectively. For the first time, it was given an “increase in wealth” rating. Risk factors: mining safety risks, insufficient fluorite reserves, risk of rising aluminum ingot prices, risk of falling electrolytic aluminum production, risk of downstream industry demand falling short of expectations, national policy risk, risk of sudden changes in the international situation

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