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中粮生化(000930)2018年度报告点评:资产整合完成 优享燃料乙醇市场空间提升

川財證券 ·  May 6, 2019 00:00  · Researches

The incident company released its 2018 annual report and 2019 first quarter report. In 2018, the company achieved operating income of 17.7 billion yuan, an increase of 11.40% over the previous year, net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies of 483 million yuan, and basic earnings per share of 0.26 yuan/share. In the first quarter of 2019, the company achieved operating income of 4.605 billion yuan and net profit attributable to listed companies of 57.934 million yuan. The implementation of the review fuel ethanol is expected to accelerate, and the market space is huge. Fifteen departments including the National Development and Reform Commission, the National Energy Administration, and the Ministry of Finance jointly issued the “Implementation Plan on Expanding Biofuel Ethanol Production and Promoting the Use of Ethanol Gasoline for Vehicles”, which proposes that by 2020, the whole country will basically achieve full coverage of automotive ethanol gasoline. In June 2018 and March 2019, Tianjin and Shanxi issued implementation plans. Considering that the basic coverage of ethanol gasoline nationwide in 2020 is approaching, the promotion and implementation policies of other provinces and cities are expected to accelerate. According to the plan, the demand for fuel ethanol will reach 12 million tons at that time, the current production capacity of fuel ethanol is less than 3 million tons, and there may be a gap between supply and demand of 5 million tons. The market share increased markedly after the company's restructuring, and it is expected that it will benefit first. The company's asset restructuring was completed, and market share increased. In 2018, the company purchased 100% of the shares of Biochemical Energy, Biochemical and Huali Investment held by Biochemical Investment through the issuance of 883 million shares. The issue price is 9.38 yuan/share, and it was listed on December 19, 2018. The successful completion of asset restructuring has further strengthened the company's position in the domestic corn deep processing industry. Revenue from the fuel ethanol business has increased, and product gross margin has further improved. International crude oil prices were high in the first half of 2018, and international crude oil prices declined in the second half of the year, and the company's fuel ethanol products achieved continuous profit. In 2018, the company's fuel ethanol revenue was 8.174 billion yuan, up 8.74% year on year, and gross margin was 20.31%, up 6.77% year on year. Maintaining the increase in holdings rating is expected to be 0.31, 0.36, and 0.49 yuan for the 2019-2021 EPS, corresponding to the closing price of 7.52 yuan on May 6, and PE at 24, 21, and 15 times, respectively, to maintain the increase in holdings rating. Risk warning: epidemic risk; prices do not meet expectations; market demand falls short of expectations.

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