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港股通股票推介:民生银行(01988.HK)

中信證券(香港) ·  Apr 30, 2019 00:00  · Researches

Minsheng Bank (1988 HK; HK$5.92; target price: HK$5.88; target price: HK$5.88). On the revenue side, net profit from Minsheng Bank 2019Q1 was 15.792 billion yuan, up 5.69% year on year 1) On the revenue side, under the influence of a low interest spread base, Q1 net interest income increased sharply by 39.9% year on year. In addition, the revenue growth rate also showed excellent performance (+16.3%). On the expenditure side, revenue recorded a rapid increase of 19.35%; 2) On the expenditure side, high revenue growth increased the low cost revenue ratio of 3.46pcts to 3.46pcts 21.29%; The company also made every effort to make up for the shortfall in provision through a window of high revenue growth. Asset impairment losses in the first quarter were 14.4 billion yuan (a significant increase of 5.8 billion over the previous year), and provision coverage increased by 3.77 pcts to 137.82%. Driven by efficiency, in parallel with scale expansion and structural optimization, the company's total assets increased 3.37% month-on-month in the first quarter, the highest growth rate in a single quarter since 2017. From a structural perspective: 1) On the asset side, loans increased by 84.9 billion yuan, and investment in public loans was mainly increased due to increased competition for inclusive loans. In addition, the company's active pressure reduced medium- and low-yield interbank assets (mainly buyback decreased by 33.3 billion yuan) and added standardized bond assets (FVTPL and AC accounts increased by 97.6 billion/43.6 billion respectively); 2) On the debt side, deposits increased well (+134.1 billion yuan). In addition, personal deposits recorded a 10.7% growth rate. In addition, the company's low interest rate center moderately increased active debt absorption. Single quarter increase 776 billion. Revenue performance is optimistic, and other non-interest income is stable 1) The company's processing fees and commission revenue in the first quarter increased sharply by 16.32% year on year, reversing the continuous zero growth situation last year. Wealth management revenue is expected to be mainly due to a low base of wealth management revenue combined with continued growth in bank cards and clearing and settlement services; 2) Q1 other non-interest income increased by 3.95%, and the positive and negative contributions of exchange earnings (6.8 billion yuan higher year on year) were basically the same as the positive and negative contributions of exchange earnings (6.8 billion yuan lower year on year); furthermore, we noticed that the FVTPL account resumed growth in the first quarter (net decrease of 1,9 billion compared with the previous year) ($63 billion) With the support of the market environment, future non-interest income performance may improve. Taking advantage of the high revenue growth window period, the company's non-performing rate dropped slightly by 1 bp to 1.75% in the first quarter to make up for shortfalls. It is estimated that the bad generation rate after write-off in a single quarter was 1.47%. After experiencing stricter one-time bad certification in the fourth quarter of last year, the generation rate basically returned to the normal level of the first three quarters of last year (average value of 1.58%). According to the first quarterly report, the company's provision coverage rate still meets the requirements of the Banking Insurance Regulatory Commission Document No. 7 of 2017, but the margin of safety is low, and it is expected that further improving the level of provision will be the company's next priority. Asset impairment losses of 14.4 billion dollars in the first quarter (a significant increase of 5.8 billion over the previous year), and provision coverage increased by 3.77 pcts to 137.82%. Risk factors: The macroeconomy declined beyond expectations, leading to a sharp deterioration in asset quality. It is recommended to focus on Minsheng Bank's asset quality pressure and capital adequacy pressure, which have been clearly mitigated in the past two quarters. Coupled with improvements in liquidity indicators, future scale expansion and structural adjustments may be more relaxed. Maintain the company's 2019/20 EPS (belonging to common shareholders) forecast at $1.20/1.29. The current A share price corresponds to 5.31X PE/0.62X PB in 2019 (Hong Kong stock price corresponds to 4.23X PE/0.50X PB in 2019). Investors are advised to pay attention.

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