Main points of investment:
Implement the "two-wheel drive" development strategy and deepen the omni-directional layout of the business. The company implements the two-wheel drive development strategy of asphalt business and real estate intermediary service business. In terms of real estate intermediary service business, under the premise of stabilizing the Pearl River Delta market, the company focuses on expanding the Yangtze River Delta region and carrying out efficient urban expansion.
On the one hand, it ploughs Shenzhen, Shanghai, Guangzhou, Hangzhou, Nanjing, Qingdao and other key cities to continuously deepen the breadth and density of offline marketing outlets; on the other hand, it expands in Huizhou, Dongguan, Kunshan, Yangzhou, Jiaqing and other urban areas around the core big cities. At present, the company has formed a business network system with South China as the core and gradually expanding to East China, North China and Central China. Through omni-directional layout and brand development, the company's performance ushered in rapid growth.
"deep ploughing" and "expansion" are carried out at the same time to open up a new market for leasing business. The company adjusts its industrial structure based on the three major strategies of "model upgrading, intensive second-hand cultivation and service promotion". Intensive cultivation of second-hand housing, highlight the advantages of brokerage stores and information platform, quickly increase market share, and deeply cultivate new housing business, focus on new housing underwriting business for the cities around the three metropolitan areas. On the basis of tamping the two major businesses, taking the housing rental business as an incision, effectively promote the extension of the company's business chain, tap the linkage value of the secondary and tertiary markets, and lay a foundation for cultivating new performance growth points of the company.
Promote the O2O development model and give full play to the first-and second-hand linkage effect. The company is actively building a real estate Internet trading platform, the establishment of real estate dictionary data covers structural data, picture data and analysis data, which is conducive to the provision of accurate operational services. In addition, the company continues to expand its offline business and currently has nearly 1500 stores and more than 20, 000 cooperative brokers in 12 cities across the country. Based on the channel resources accumulated by the O2O model, give full play to the first-and second-hand linkage effect, transmit housing information more widely to potential new housing customers, and allow second-hand housing brokers with a large number of customer resources to participate in new housing sales to promote the overall improvement of business.
Real estate intermediary business continues to make efforts to promote the new growth of the company's performance. In 2018, the company's main business income was 4.552 billion yuan, an increase of 78.39% over the same period last year, of which the real estate intermediary service business realized revenue of 3.625 billion yuan, an increase of 16.18% over the same period last year, contributing 79.64% of the revenue. The net profit belonging to shareholders of listed companies was 312 million yuan, an increase of 627.24% over the same period last year. The main reason for the growth in performance is that the good operating performance of Yunfang in Shenzhen has led to a substantial increase in the overall operating performance of the company. The net profit of Shenzhen Yunfang in 2018 was 323 million yuan, which was 0.27% higher than the promised performance.
Investment advice: "better than the big market". We believe that after the reorganization of the company, the real estate intermediary service business will maintain the growth rate and promote the overall performance of the company. in addition, the company will actively layout the national business and open up the leasing business market to promote the sustainable development of the company. We predict that the company's EPS will be 0.40 yuan per share in 2019, and give the company 14-16 times PE in 2019. The corresponding market value is about 51-5.9 billion yuan, the corresponding reasonable value range is 5.61-6.42 yuan, and the corresponding PEG is 0.86-0.98 in 2019.
Risk hints: industrial policy change risk, industry periodicity and business seasonal fluctuation risk.