Main points of investment:
Event: according to the annual report released by the company in 2018, the company achieved an operating income of 2.23 billion yuan in 2018, an increase of 4.7% over the same period last year, and a net profit of 410 million yuan belonging to the shareholders of the parent company, down 19.4% from the same period last year.
Revenue continues to be solid and real estate gross profit margin remains high. In 2018, the gross profit margin of the company's real estate business reached 64.5%, an increase of 2.6% over the same period last year and remained at a high level. From a product point of view, the gross profit margin of real estate sales is as high as 73.7%, which has become the main force supporting the company's high gross margin. Due to the high cost of investment in the early stage, the operating cost of the new science and technology service increased significantly, and the gross profit margin fell 13.0% compared with the same period last year. From a regional point of view, the revenue and gross profit advantage of Beijing area is still obvious, accounting for 84% of the total revenue, with a gross profit margin of 72.3%. Tianjin area has made obvious efforts, benefiting from the radiation effect of Beijing business and key customer marketing strategy, revenue increased by 477.5% compared with the same period last year.
The land reserve is rich in resources, supporting future performance growth. In 2018, the company achieved real estate sales revenue of 1.74 billion yuan, an increase of 3.6% over the same period last year, with a sales area of 16.1 million square meters, an increase of 11.8% over the same period last year. In 2018, the company completed a development investment of 4.74 billion yuan, with an additional land reserve of 757,000 square meters, and the situation of acquiring land is positive. With the expansion of land reserve, the cash paid by the company's land resources has increased, and the operating cash flow has declined significantly, by 855%. Considering the abundant land reserves and saleable land resources of the company in the future, the cash flow may be improved in the future.
The transformation of science and technology services has been deepened and the financing capacity has been enhanced at the same time. The company focuses on the development, operation and service of the science and technology industrial park, and actively promotes the "integration of production and city" and the business of science, technology and education, which has become a new business highlight of the company. In 2018, the company opened and resumed work with an area of 912,000 square meters, and the incremental effect of the Electronic City Park is remarkable. At the same time, the introduction of the tax exemption policy reduced the operating costs of the company, and the government support policies were strengthened, and the amount of new subsidies reached 70 million yuan that year. In terms of financing, the company has successively completed the "National Finance-Electronic property Rent Asset support Special Plan" and medium-term note issuance, and the Xiamen Electronic City project has obtained a bank credit line of 300 million yuan, effectively meeting the company's capital needs and consolidating the achievements of the project construction.
We will continue to promote the strategic layout of nationalization and give full play to the synergy effect. The company has continuously implemented the development strategy of "based on Beijing and radiating the whole country". While promoting the construction of Beijing regional innovative industrial parks in an orderly manner, the company has actively promoted the electronic city projects in Tianjin, Xiamen, Kunming, Nanjing, Shuozhou and other places. expand high-quality property resources, improve the regional layout of North, South, Southwest and East China, and substantial progress has been made in the "Nanjing International Cyberport" project in 2018. Cultivate new profit growth points for the company.
Profit forecast and investment rating: we raise the company's performance forecast and expect the company to achieve operating income of 4.7 billion yuan, 6.53 billion yuan and 8.67 billion yuan respectively from 2019 to 2021; net profit of 760 million yuan, 1.26 billion yuan and 1.58 billion yuan respectively; EPS is 0.68,1.13 yuan and 1.41 yuan respectively, corresponding to PE of 8.7x, 5.2x and 4.1x respectively. Maintain the recommended rating.
Risk tips: 1, the profit of science and technology service business is lower than expected; 2, the operating cash flow continues to be tense.