Report guide: The company's 2019Q1 performance was slightly lower than expected, and sales remained high in the first quarter. New real estate construction has been strong, infrastructure investment has rebounded, and overseas sales capacity has increased. As a leading steel company in Xinjiang, the company's profits will pick up quarter by quarter in 2019. Investment Essentials: Maintaining an “Overweight” rating. The company achieved revenue of 3,923 billion yuan in 2019Q1, up 15.10% year on year; net profit to mother - 194 million yuan, down 234.47% year on year, and the company's performance was slightly lower than expected. In 2019, new real estate construction was strong, infrastructure is picking up, steel demand is low and high, and the company's performance will pick up quarter by quarter. Due to strong supply in the industry and strong iron ore prices, the company's Q1 performance fell slightly below expectations. The company's EPS in 2019-2021 was lowered to 0.25/0.32/0.36 yuan (originally 0.44/0.52/0.56 yuan). The company was strongly expected to benefit from infrastructure recovery, giving the company 18 times the valuation in 2019, lowering the company's target price to 4.50 yuan (originally 5.70 yuan), and maintaining the “gain” rating. The company's operations were stable, and sales remained high in the first quarter. In the first quarter of 2019, the company's steel sales volume was 1.0281 million tons, a slight decrease of 0.61 million tons over the previous year, and remained high overall. In the first quarter of 2019, the company's average steel sales price was 3,652 yuan/ton, and the gross profit per ton of steel was 131 yuan/ton, corresponding to net profit of 181 yuan/ton per ton per ton, down 52 yuan/ton and 209 yuan/ton, respectively. The main reason was the increase in costs due to strong downstream iron ore prices. As infrastructure continues to pick up, its profitability is expected to gradually pick up. Infrastructure is expected to pick up, and overseas sales capacity will increase. The issuance of national special bonds continues to actively promote superposition policies, and infrastructure investment will continue to pick up in 2019. With the expansion of the Xinjiang Railway's transportation capacity, the company's overseas sales capacity gradually increased. Demand for steel was low and high in 2019, and there is room for the company's profitability to rise. Real estate is strong, infrastructure is picking up, and leading regional steel companies are benefiting from a recovery in steel demand. Investment in real estate development in Xinjiang increased 9.2% year on year in March 2019, and the growth rate rebounded sharply from February. New real estate construction in 2019 exceeded market expectations, infrastructure picked up, and overall demand was still strong. As a leading steel company in Xinjiang, the company has fully benefited from the recovery in domestic steel demand, and its performance will gradually pick up. Risk warning: The macroeconomic downturn has accelerated; supply-side increases have exceeded expectations.
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八一钢铁(600581)2019年一季报点评:业绩略低于预期 基建回暖拉动需求回升
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