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爱建集团(600643):信托业务收入增速转正 租赁贡献增量业绩

國泰君安 ·  Apr 30, 2019 00:00  · Researches

Guide to this report: Aijian Trust's active management scale growth combined with the expansion of return rates is expected to drive the company's 19-year performance to exceed expectations. Huarui Leasing's merger will contribute to incremental performance, raise the company's profit forecast, and raise the target price to 14.1 yuan. Key investment points: Raise the target price to 1.4.10 yuan to maintain the “increased holdings” rating. The company's total revenue in 19Q1 and net profit of the company was 857/264 million yuan, +86%/+49% over the same period last year, exceeding our expectations. The increase in the scale of active management of Aijian Trust in '18, combined with the expansion of the return rate, led to an increase in performance in 2019 that exceeded expectations. It is expected that the scale of active management in 19Q1 will continue the rapid growth trend in '18, while Huarui Leasing's merger will also bring incremental performance to the company. Based on this, we raised the company's EPS in 2019-21 to 0.87/1.03/1.13 (up to 0.72/0.87 yuan in 19-20), giving the company a valuation of 19P/B 2.1 times. The target price was raised to 14.1 yuan (before 12.06 yuan), increasing holdings. The increase in scale was compounded by the expansion of the return rate, and the growth rate of trust business revenue was corrected. 1) It is expected that the active management scale of 19Q1 Aijian Trust will continue to grow for 18 years, and that the effect of expanding the return rate will continue to show, driving the net revenue of 19Q1 companies to +20% year-on-year (mainly contributed by trust business revenue). Stable macro investment demand combined with tight capital is moderately conducive to the expansion of the scale of active management in the industry. 2) According to Aijian Trust's annual report, at the end of 2018, the total scale of corporate trust management fell 24% to 254.1 billion, and the scale of active management increased by 28% to 73.8 billion; real estate investment accounted for 22% of the total scale, higher than the industry average of 14%. 3) We estimate that the annualized return on the company's active management business is about 2.2%, +17% over the same period last year. The “sharp increase in volume and price” in 2018 will lay the foundation for the release of the company's performance in '19. It is estimated that Aijian Trust's net profit in '19 will be +21%. Diversified investment increased, and Huarui Leasing also contributed to incremental performance. 1) The diversified investment of the group headquarters has increased. The company plans to subscribe for 500 million yuan of industrial funds with collaborative advantages in the Yangtze River Delta region, and plans to subscribe for 300 million yuan of Junxin Capital's PE share for 300 million yuan. Diversified investment will enhance the company's profitability. 2) 18Q3 completed the acquisition of Huarui Leasing. Relying on Junyao's advantages in the aviation field, the leasing sector is expected to contribute incremental performance. Catalyst: The company's active management trust scale increased beyond expectations. Risk warning: Regulatory policies have an uncertain impact on trust business.

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