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爱建集团(600643):信托驱动增长 租赁完善版图

萬聯證券 ·  Apr 29, 2019 00:00  · Researches

Key investment points: Jun Yao took over, and the established financial group was revitalized: Aijian Group started as the first private enterprise in mainland China and has a rich history. In recent years, with the new shareholder Junyao Group taking over, the company's old trees have blossomed and ushered in a new period of high growth. The compound annual growth rates of total operating income and net profit to mother in 2015-2018 were 24.37% and 22.61% respectively, which is significantly superior to the previous period. At present, the company has gradually developed into a comprehensive financial service platform covering trusts, leasing, securities, asset management and other businesses. The majority shareholders are strong, and the continuous increase in their holdings shows confidence: Junyao Group is strong. It has five major business segments: finance, aviation, consumption, education, and science and innovation. As the core asset of Junyao's financial sector, the company is expected to combine industry and finance with other industrial sectors to begin joint development. Furthermore, Junyao Group has frequently increased its holdings in the secondary market in the past two years, and its shareholding ratio in the company has increased to 28.34%, demonstrating confidence in operations. Trust “volume compensation” drives high performance growth rates: Aijian Trust is the core driving force for the company's performance growth, and its profit contribution rate has increased to more than 90% in 2018. Its development strategy can be summarized as “volume compensation”. On the one hand, the scale of fiduciary assets continued to grow at a high rate, surging from 26.70 billion yuan in 2013 to 277.635 billion yuan in 2017, showing industry-leading expansion capabilities; on the other hand, the trust return rate also declined accordingly, from 1.85% in 2013 to 0.84% in 2017. Although the “volume compensation” model has brought high performance growth in recent years, under the general trend of active management reform in the industry, the “de-channeling” of the business structure will determine the continuity of the high growth rate of the company's performance. Incorporating Huarui Leasing, the leasing landscape is becoming more and more perfect: Aijian Leasing achieved rapid development through industry expansion in 2014-2016. The compound annual growth rates of operating income and net profit were 120.62% and 127.54%, respectively. However, in 2017-2018, due to both stricter regulations and rising credit risk in the real economy, performance began to show negative growth. However, the company took over Huarui Leasing in 2018 and completed the first resource integration between major shareholders. It is expected that after improving the leasing layout, the two companies will develop collaboratively, and the profit contribution is expected to increase. Profit forecast and investment advice: The company's revenue for the period 2019-2021 is estimated to be RMB 3.27 billion, RMB 3,980 billion and RMB 5,073 billion, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 21.59%, 23.33% and 27.47% respectively; net profit to mother is RMB 1,320 billion, RMB 1,527 billion and RMB 1,791 billion respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 14.02%, 15.67% and 17.29% respectively; corresponding EPS is RMB 0.81, RMB 0.94 and RMB 1.10, respectively. The first target price of 13.82 yuan in 2019 was obtained through the PB valuation method. It was covered for the first time, and a “gain” rating was given. Risk factors: Trust loan growth rate falls short of expectations; active management transformation progress falls short of expectations

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