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白银有色(601212):矿产量进入加速提升期+氢能上游稀缺标的

Silver non-ferrous (601212): ore output enters the period of accelerated increase + scarce target for upstream hydrogen energy

招商證券 ·  Apr 30, 2019 00:00  · Researches

The company publishes its annual report for 2018 and the first quarterly report for 2019. In 2018, operating income increased by 9.38% to 61.9 billion yuan, and the net profit of returning to the mother was 26 million yuan, down 89%. The net loss after deducting non-return was 96 million yuan, slightly exceeding our expectations. The decline in performance was mainly due to a combined increase of 1 billion yuan in financial and management costs. Corresponding earnings per share fell from 0.035 yuan to 0.004 yuan.

Citic Guoan Group, a major shareholder, is in a debt crisis, and its assets have been frozen and sold one after another: Citic Guoan Group holds a 31.2% stake in the company and is all waiting to be frozen. Two points are worth paying attention to. First, Citic Guoan Group holds all the shares restricted by the original shareholders, and the ban will be lifted on February 17, 2020. In addition, Citic Group and CITIC Guoan Group are concerted actors, and together they hold 35.07% of the shares in the company. Gansu SASAC and its wholly-owned subsidiaries hold 36.17% of the company's share capital. The interests of the company held by the two parties are close together, and neither party can exercise actual control over the company alone. There is no actual controller in the company.

The new expansion project has made steady progress, entered a period of accelerated production, and gradually developed into a veritable resource-based company: in 2018, Peru Shouxin 6.8 million tons / year tailings copper separation project reached production, with a net profit of 230 million yuan and a production of 19200 tons of copper metal. as a result, the company's mineral copper output increased by 79%. The feasibility study and preliminary design of the second phase of 6.8 million tons / year have been completed, and the approval of local projects in Peru has been initiated. The second phase of production, Peru's first letter will contribute 36,000 tons of copper per year, the company's annual copper production will also climb to 60,000 tons, comparable to Tongling non-ferrous.

In 2018, the 3 million-ton mining and separation expansion project of Changba lead-Zinc Mine entered the final stage of equipment and pipeline installation. After reaching production, it will become a mining enterprise with the largest production capacity and obvious economic advantages of a single mine in China, with an estimated annual output of 178000 tons of lead and zinc metal and 29300 tons of lead and zinc metal. The company's lead and zinc output will also be comparable to that of zinc and germanium. In addition, in the first quarter, the company successfully bought a 100% stake in Central African Gold, and South African first Gold finally became a wholly-owned subsidiary of the company. The proportion of shares held by Span also increased accordingly.

Maintain the "prudent recommendation-A" investment rating. Spanyi is the third largest platinum miner in the world, with similar palladium and platinum production. Platinum prices are expected to rise in the medium to long term. Due to the increasingly stringent environmental requirements on vehicle emissions, the continued shortage of palladium does not necessarily fall back and is expected to remain high. Fuel cell upstream raw materials are scarce and the company's resources and mineral metals are growing rapidly, and the market is expected to reevaluate the company.

Risk hints: lead, zinc and other main products price fluctuation risk; industry policy risk; exchange rate risk; construction and production schedule of projects under construction is not as expected; M & A project progress is not as expected mine production safety risk.

The translation is provided by third-party software.


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