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睿见教育(06068.HK):FY19H1业绩超预期 收购增厚影响持续

興業證券 ·  May 1, 2019 00:00  · Researches

The impact of the acquisition of key investment points on the increase in performance continued. The mid-term performance was impressive, maintaining the target price of HK$6 and the “prudent increase in holdings” rating: the mid-term performance of FY2019H1 companies was impressive and exceeded expectations across the board. Among them, the acquisition of schools in Eastern Guangdong and Weifang increased significantly in revenue, but financial pressure was also gradually looming. We believe that the increase in the financial expense ratio will have a negative impact on the company's long-term profit margin, but the short-term impact on performance is not obvious. Based on mergers and acquisitions of schools and tuition fee increase plans, we have raised our profit forecast. It is estimated that the company's revenue for the 2019-2021 fiscal year will be RMB 16.6, 21.2, and 2.65 billion yuan, up 33.4%, 27.4% and 24.9%, respectively; core net profit will be 4.3, 5.3 and 670 million yuan, up 33%, 24.6% and 25.6%, respectively. Maintain the “prudent increase in holdings” rating and maintain the target price of HK$6, corresponding to the PE of fiscal year 2019-2021, which is 25, 20 and 16 times, respectively. The performance exceeded expectations, the division business performance was outstanding, and the education support service business continued to grow rapidly: FY2019H1 recorded revenue of 836 million yuan, an increase of 41.1% over the previous year, exceeding our expectations of 764 million yuan by 9.4%. Sources of revenue that exceeded expectations split tuition and accommodation expenses accounted for 69.3%, up 38.8% year on year; ancillary services accounted for 30.7%, up 46.9% year on year. Tuition and accommodation fees are affected by the increase in school utilization and the increase in tuition fees. This fiscal year, the company will increase fees for some of its elementary schools and middle schools, and it is expected that FY2020 will increase tuition fees for some high schools in Guangdong. Supporting services continue to maintain a high growth rate and exceed our expectations. This confirms that education companies have a sustainable advantage in providing supporting services to schools, in line with the current policy's regulatory ideas on the separation of education and services. Capital expenditure is expected to remain stable throughout the year, and cash can still support it: as of FY2019H1, the company's on-account cash and secured bank deposits totaled $966 million, net debt after deducting interest-bearing debt was $982 million, and capital is tight but short-term solvency is sufficient (short-term debt is $626 million). The capital expenditure of FY2019H1 company is about 330 million yuan. The full-year outlook, after deducting a one-time acquisition, is expected to reach 660 million yuan in capital expenses to maintain the construction of two new schools and some of the new school expansions. In FY19/20, we expect the company to record retained earnings of $250/320 million respectively. The company's cash position is still able to maintain its asset-heavy expansion. Affected by the increase in debt, the financial expense ratio of FY2019H1 companies reached 4.6%, an increase of 280 bps over the previous year, driving a slight decline in net interest rates. Risk warning: 1) China's education industry is fiercely competitive; 2) corporate acquisitions, self-construction, etc. fall short of expectations; 3) integration of acquisition targets falls short of expectations; 4) changes in national education industry policy; 5) VIE structure policy risks.

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