Event: 1) 2018 revenue of 348 million yuan / + 0.84%, net profit of 57.66 million yuan / + 3.96%, net profit of 40.87 million yuan /-15.94% of net profit deducted from non-return of mother. 2018Q4's revenue is 0.48 billion yuan /-2.95%, and its net profit is-33.66 million yuan, reducing its loss by 410000 yuan compared with the same period last year. 2) 2019Q1 realized revenue of 44 million yuan / + 5.94%, net profit of-8.52 million yuan, loss reduction of 360000 yuan over the same period last year, deduction of non-return net profit of-8.72 million yuan, and loss reduction of 1.54 million yuan over the same period last year.
The slowdown in revenue growth in Dalian stems from a fierce price war in the local market. Shengya SeaWorld of Dalian headquarters is still the main source of performance of the company. In 2018, the income of Dalian area reached 279 million yuan / + 1.47%, accounting for 80.18% of the total revenue. The main reason for the slowdown in revenue growth is that competition in Dalian's local market is extremely fierce and competitors adopt price war strategies. The company strengthens product marketing through multiple channels such as establishing regular marketing in the four seasons, actively expanding media cooperation, and promoting word-of-mouth marketing through characterization services, so as to achieve the same annual revenue and return net profit as last year.
The performance of the management output project is bright, and the profitability is significantly higher than that of the traditional business. Since 2016, the company began to promote the export business model of light asset management. The first phase of the Wuhu project opened in September 16, and the second phase of the show opened in the Spring Festival in 18 years, contributing more than 5000 yuan to the company's revenue. Huai'an project opened in May 17, contributing more than 2400 million yuan to the company's revenue. Both Wuhu and Huaian management export projects have expired at present, which confirms the company's comprehensive strength in the aquarium industry and lays a solid foundation for the development and construction of the following remote projects. In 2018, other business income of 3219 million yuan / + 30.57%, gross profit margin as high as 72.07%/+16.80pct, profitability is very considerable.
The gross profit margin and net profit margin have increased significantly, and the promotion of projects in other places has led to an increase in financial rates. The gross profit margin in 2018 is 66.01%/+6.19pct, which is due to the expansion of the management export business with high gross margin and the further increase in profitability; the net profit margin is 15.28% and 0.06%. In terms of expense rate, the overall cost of the period showed a slight upward trend, with the rate 35.80%/+0.51pct during 2018, of which the sales rate 6.34%/-0.14pct decreased slightly, the management rate 23.49%/-1.47pct decreased slightly, and the financial rate 5.97%/+2.12pct derived from the increase in bank loans needed for the promotion of remote projects.
The expansion rate of projects in different places has slowed down. In 2018, the company is under construction at 484 million yuan, an increase of 254 million yuan over the beginning of the year, mainly due to the increase of Zhenjiang beluga whale project, Yingkou Bayuquan beluga whale project, and beluga lake project; intangible assets are 586 million yuan, a substantial increase of 380 million yuan over the beginning of the year, mainly due to the land of Yingkou project and Chun'an project being included in the consolidated statement. In the next few years, the company has planned to invest more than 3 billion yuan in projects across the country. if the financing is smooth and the project management meets expectations, then the company's performance will usher in a qualitative leap and is expected to become China's "Blue Walt Disney Company".
Profit forecast and investment rating: the company is actively expanding marketing channels. The performance of 2018 and 2019Q1 is basically the same as last year, and the scale of management export business and gross profit margin have increased significantly. The company's Harbin Polar Pavilion Phase II project, Kunming project and Yingkou project move frequently, and the Moby Dick Project continues to promote, actively creating the first domestic original marine culture IP industry chain. With the introduction of 21-year profit forecast, it is estimated that the EPS in 19-21 will be 0.55, 0.60, 0.64 yuan respectively, and the share price corresponding to PE on April 30 will be times that of 74-67-64, maintaining the "prudent overweight" rating.
Risk tips: the progress of the new project is not as expected, the company's financing channels are blocked, extreme weather affects passenger flow, etc.
