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音飞储存(603066):18年业绩符合预期 1Q19略超预期 仓储机器人持续高增长

中金公司 ·  Apr 29, 2019 00:00  · Researches

The 2018 results were in line with expectations. The 22% increase in 1Q19 performance was slightly better than the expected 2018 results: annual revenue of 689 million yuan (+15%), net profit of 92 million yuan (+11%), net profit after deducting non-return net profit of 76 million yuan (+35%), consistent with our expected net profit of 94 million yuan. In terms of ratio, gross profit margin increased 0.2ppt to 31.9%, and net profit margin fell 0.5ppt to 13.4%. In terms of a single quarter, 4Q18 had operating income of 208 million (+13%), gross profit margin increased by 2.9ppt to 32.6% year on year, net profit margin fell 1% year on year to 021 million yuan, and net profit margin decreased by 3.3 ppt to 10.0%. The price of steel in 2018 was basically the same as in 2017, so the net gross margin margin was not much different. Judging from cash flow, the 2Q18-4Q18 operating cash flow has improved, and the ability to repay has increased. By business, the revenue growth rate of the automated system integration business (warehousing robot) is 65%. Currently, it already accounts for 51% of revenue and 52% of gross profit. The revenue growth rate of the traditional shelf business is lower than -14%, accounting for 48% of revenue and 45% of gross profit. The remaining service revenue, such as warehousing, contributes less than 3% to revenue and gross profit. 1Q19's performance was slightly better than expected: 1Q19 had revenue of $138 million (+36%) and net profit of $14 million (+22%). Our previous net profit growth rate was 10-15%, which was better than our expectations. The main reason was the rapid increase in production capacity and the net outflow of $48 million from 1Q19 was narrower than the net outflow of $68 million from 1Q18. Looking ahead, focus on the Ma'anshan project's release of production capacity: the total investment of the project is 1 billion dollars, and the additional shelf production capacity will reach 150,000 tons after the completion of the project. We expect some production to be put into operation as early as the second half of 2020. If production capacity is fully released, it will contribute 1 to 2 billion dollars in revenue. The company's average gross margin/net profit margin from 2012 to 2018 was 34%/13%, respectively. This production line expansion will contribute 3.4 to 680 million gross profit and 130 million to 260 million net profit. Since there is some pressure on the sales side, we assume that production capacity will be gradually released over seven years. The profit forecast takes into account the rapid increase in the production capacity of the company's shelves and automated integrated systems business, and we raised the 2019/20e profit by 25%/30% to 1.26/155 million yuan. The current stock price of the valuation and recommendation company is 8.05 yuan, corresponding to 19/20 19/16 times P/E. We have maintained a neutral rating for the time being, maintaining a target price of 8 yuan (corresponding to a 1% decline), and the target price corresponding to 19/20 19/16 times P/E. Risk: Macroeconomic stall, inventory backlog, large fluctuations in steel prices

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