Main points of investment
Event: the company announced that its revenue in the first quarter of 2019 was 54.27 million yuan, down 4.06% from the same period last year. The net profit loss of its parent was 8.29 million yuan, a year-on-year reduction of 44.27%. After deducting the net profit loss of 12.31 million yuan, the loss was 20.94% less than that of the same period last year.
Comments:
Ticket price reduction led to a decline in the performance of passenger transport and travel agencies, and the hotel business continued to decline. During the reporting period, affected by the reduction in ticket prices, the business income of environmental protection passenger transport and travel agencies decreased by 24.89% and 10.68% respectively. In addition, the hotel business continued to decline, with revenue down 13.89% compared with the same period last year, resulting in a 4.06% drop in revenue. Other businesses were affected by traffic improvement and have achieved a significant increase. In particular, the revenue of Yangjiajie cableway increased by 42.94%.
Benefiting from the improvement of traffic, the passenger flow of the scenic spot has increased significantly. Wulingshan Avenue, which connects the urban area of Zhangjiajie and Wulingyuan, was opened to traffic at the end of last year, and Yangjiajie Avenue was opened to traffic before the Spring Festival this year. Traffic improvement drives passenger flow growth. Among them, the number of green passenger ticket buyers was 504800 / + 7.52%, but due to ticket price reduction and concessionary ticket policy, the passenger unit price decreased by 30%, Baofeng Lake 88200 / + 19.35%, Shili Gallery sightseeing tram 183700 / + 25.05%, Yangjiajie cableway 148200 / + 74.35%, the passenger flow increased significantly.
The gross profit margin increases with the optimization of income structure and the expense rate is stable. During the reporting period, the growth of business income in the scenic spots with high gross profit margin significantly increased the gross profit margin to 10.10%, the expense rate was relatively stable, and the overall expense rate was 36.48%, which was down 0.03pct from the same period last year. Among them, the sales expense rate 5.24%/+0.83pct, the management expense rate 29.30%/-1.24pct, the financial expense rate 1.94% impulse 0.38pct; in addition, the company's investment income increased by 3.15 million yuan compared with the same period last year.
The Dayong ancient city project is expected to be put into operation in the fourth quarter of this year. The construction of the main body of the project has been basically completed, the equipment has been booked and produced, and the core service project large-scale folk performing arts "meeting Dayong" and the Flying Cinema have been basically completed, and the company is expected to be put into use in October 1919; Dayong Ancient City aims to create a comprehensive tourism leisure area integrating "food, housing, tourism, shopping and entertainment", and to build a new landmark of urban culture and leisure in the central city of Zhangjiajie, which is expected to become a new growth point of the company.
Profit forecast and investment rating: over the past 17 years, the company has been subject to the influence of factors such as road construction on Wulingshan Avenue and the continuous decline of passenger flow in Yangjiajie, and its business performance is mediocre. With the improvement of traffic, the growth rate of passenger flow is expected to pick up (the company expects the passenger flow of scenic spots to increase by 19.99% in 19 years), and the formal operation of the superimposed fund-raising project is expected to form a new growth point this year. It is estimated that the EPS for 19-21 will be 0.09 + 0.10 RMB / share respectively, and the closing price on April 26 will be times higher than that of 74-61-45 corresponding to PE, maintaining the "prudent overweight" rating.
Risk hint: passenger flow has declined, tickets and ropeways have been reduced, and the progress of Dayong Ancient City is not as expected.