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中嘉博创(000889)2018年年报点评:收购嘉华业绩亮眼 抢位布局站址资源

國泰君安 ·  Apr 24, 2019 00:00  · Researches

Guide to this report: The company released its annual report. Zhongjia Bochuang's revenue in 2018 was 3,031 billion yuan, a sharp increase of more than 40% over the previous year. The merger and acquisition of Jiahua Information's performance promise exceeded expectations. With the construction of 5G in 2019, the company's site resource pool project is expected to benefit. Key investment points: Maintain the “increase in holdings” rating, and keep the target price of 18 yuan unchanged. The company released its 2018 annual report. In 2018, it achieved net profit of 253 million yuan and EPS of 0.38 yuan. The main reason is that operators' comprehensive agency business procurement has declined, telecom value-added business revenue is affected by channel tariffs, and gross margin has decreased. Considering the acceleration of 5G commercialization in 2019 and 2020 and the increase in operator spending, the forecast for EPS for 2019-2021 is 0.42 yuan (down 30%), 0.52 (down 28.8%), and 0.59 yuan. This valuation is based on the expansion of share capital after mergers and acquisitions. Referring to the valuation situation of comparable companies, Zhongjia Bochuang was given a valuation of 43 times in 2019, corresponding to the target price of 18 yuan. It remained unchanged and maintained its “increased holdings” rating. Jiahua exceeded its acquisition performance promises, and the three major industries achieved collaborative development: the company's revenue increased significantly in 2018, mainly due to the completion of mergers and intelligent information transmission and communication maintenance services. The company's three major businesses will develop collaboratively in the future, further increase R&D investment, and have valuable transformation experience. In the future, the scope of business will continue to expand, and its competitive position is expected to further improve. It is expected that the company's performance will maintain a high level of growth in 2019. The layout is geared to seize site resources and prepare for the commercial implementation of 5G: the computer room for edge computing is small, standards such as load bearing and earthquake resistance are relatively low, and it is distributed, so it is more suitable for deployment on small base stations. The company is actively deploying the “5G Site Resource Pool” project across the country, has relevant resources and experience, and is expected to benefit significantly when edge computing applications are implemented in the future. Catalysts: Enterprise SMS business volume has increased; 5G-based construction operators have increased network maintenance expenses; and financial outsourcing services have become more common. Risk warning: SMS business margin declined; 5G construction fell short of expectations; financial services outsourcing market expansion fell short of expectations; risk of impairment of goodwill.

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