In 2018, the company achieved revenue of 4.552 billion yuan, an increase of 78.39%, and a net profit of 312 million yuan, an increase of 627.2%. The substantial increase in performance was mainly due to the 17-year company only in August-December. According to the fourth-quarter data, the company achieved an operating income of 1.332 billion yuan in a single quarter, a year-on-year growth rate of-5.5%, a net profit of 91 million yuan, and a 17-year Q4 of only 8 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 7.3%.
Stable position in the leading position, deep ploughing + expansion at the same time, the market share has increased steadily. In the company's business, the profitability of the real estate business continues to improve and remains the main source of performance. In 18 years, the company's revenue from real estate and asphalt business accounted for 79.64% and 20.36% respectively, while real estate contributed 84% of gross profit, which was the main source of performance. The 18-year gross profit margin of the company's real estate business was 17.7%, an increase of 3.2 PCT over the same period last year. In the first half of 2018, the company laid out "thousands of stores". By the end of the year, the company had more than 1500 stores and more than 20,000 agents, which shows that the company has achieved certain results in adhering to the deep ploughing strategy and the market share has increased significantly. At present, the company not only ploughs deeply in Shenzhen, Zhongshan, Zhuhai as the core of the Pearl River Delta region, but also in Shanghai, Qingdao, Nanjing, Hangzhou and other cities active layout, steady expansion.
The layout of first-tier cities accounts for nearly 60%, and it is expected to be the first to benefit from the recovery of the first-tier market. We believe that the company's performance last year was mainly affected by the overall failure of the real estate market as expected, and the urban agglomeration with the main layout of first-tier cities as the core showed signs of recovery in Q1 in 199. among them, the turnover of Q1 second-hand housing in Shanghai is + 44.7% compared with the same period last year, and the company's performance is expected to pick up significantly after the second-hand housing market in Shenzhen and surrounding cities picks up.
The company's rate level is higher than that of its peers, and it has advantages in marketing and management. The company's new house agency rate and brokerage commission rate are higher than those of the World Union Bank of the same industry. I love my family, which shows that Shenzhen Yunfang has advantages in operation and sales strategy. At the same time, the independent broker system stimulates the enthusiasm of employees: Shenzhen Yunfang and brokers adopt cooperation mode rather than employment mode, and encourage brokers by increasing commission commission ratio, resulting in a significant increase in per capita income. In 18 years, Shenzhen net visa order quantity industry first, shop average order quantity industry first. Under this incentive policy, it is expected that the per capita and monthly income of Yunfang in Shenzhen will continue to grow in 19 years.
Investment advice:
The company's restructured Shenzhen Yunfang (QFang.com) is a leading O2O real estate agency, with more than 1500 stores nationwide, accounting for nearly 60% of first-tier cities, higher than our previous expectation of 1300. With channel advantages and independent broker incentive system, agency rates and market share have continued to rise in recent years, maintaining a leading position in Shenzhen and Dawan area. Benefiting from the recovery of the real estate market in first-and second-tier cities in 1919, both volume and price are expected to rise. Based on the above, we expect the company's 19-20 return net profit to be 412 million and 524 million respectively, corresponding to EPS 0.45,0.57 yuan respectively, corresponding PE 13.75X and 10.82X respectively, maintaining the "buy" rating.
Risk hint: housing sales are lower than expected, and goodwill has impairment risk.