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大禹节水(300021)动态研究:“三农”水服务领军 受益乡村振兴

國海證券 ·  Mar 13, 2019 00:00  · Researches

Investment points: agricultural water-saving taps, sufficient orders in hand. The company was founded in 1999, focusing on the “three agriculture, three waters” business, laying out agricultural water-saving irrigation, rural sewage treatment, and farmers' drinking water safety demand markets, and providing the “design - equipment system integration - engineering general contracting - operation” industry chain and full-cycle integrated services. It is a domestic agricultural water-saving faucet, and underground drip irrigation technology is leading the industry. The company's performance report shows that in 2018, it achieved operating income of 1,714 billion yuan, an increase of 33.42% over the previous year; net profit of 119 million yuan, an increase of 24.50% over the previous year. New orders of 4.5 billion yuan were signed in 2018, an increase of 52% over the previous year, 2.6 times the operating income in 2018, which is a strong guarantee for future performance growth. The rural revitalization strategy continues to be implemented, and the government strongly supports the promotion of high-standard and efficient water-saving farmland construction. In October 2017, the 19th National Congress of the Party proposed a rural revitalization strategy for the first time; in September 2018, the “Rural Revitalization Strategic Plan (2018-2022)” was officially issued. Agriculture and rural areas will become key directions of the national strategy. The current government attaches great importance to it, and investment will continue to increase. Among them, it is mentioned that by 2022, the country's water-saving irrigation area will reach 650 million mu, and the area of efficient water-saving irrigation will reach 400 million mu. In 2019, the Central Committee Document No. 1 proposed vigorously promoting the construction of high-standard farmland, adding more than 80 million mu of high-standard farmland and more than 20 million mu of efficient water-saving irrigation throughout the year. If the average financial investment per mu mentioned by the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs in the “Notice on Accomplishing the Current Farmland Construction Management Work” is estimated to be no less than 1,500 yuan, the amount of high-efficiency water-saving irrigation area required during the year alone can drive investment of no less than 30 billion yuan. Land system reform continues to advance, benefiting the company's customers and business development. The 2019 report on the work of the government proposed promoting rural land expropriation, the entry of land for collective management construction into the market, and the pilot reform of the homestead system. Land system reform continues to deepen. At the same time, the “separation of powers” system for contracted land continues to improve, which will provide an institutional foundation for land circulation. We believe that the continuous promotion of land transfer is conducive to speeding up agricultural modernization and achieving large-scale management. The company's main customers and orders are expected to expand and expand starting with the current government as the main focus. Financial services for rural revitalization, support for agricultural loans has increased, and corporate financing is expected to continue to improve. Five ministries and commissions including the People's Bank of China jointly issued the “Guiding Opinions on Financial Services for Rural Revitalization”, which requires financial institutions involved in agriculture to increase their agricultural loan balances and guide agricultural loan costs downward through the use of low-cost funds and increased credit enhancement measures. The company has fully benefited. The loan interest rate for the 15-year medium- to long-term loan contract signed between Tianjin Green Land Company, which participated in the rural domestic sewage project in Wuqing District of Tianjin, and the Tianjin Wuqing District Branch of ICBC was 5.145%, which is at a low level. We believe that as financial support for agriculture continues to increase, the company's financing environment is expected to continue to improve. First coverage, giving the company an “increase in holdings” rating: rural revitalization has been upgraded to a new national strategy, and investment in agriculture and rural areas will continue to increase in the future. Among them, the construction of high-standard and efficient water-saving farmland is the key investment direction. The company is a leader in the domestic agricultural water-saving industry and will fully benefit from the development dividends of the industry. The abundance of orders on hand can strongly support future performance growth. Based on industry development dividends and the company's leading position, we predict that the company's EPS for 2018-2020 will be 0.15, 0.24, and 0.35 yuan/share, respectively, corresponding to the current stock price PE, which is 41.06, 25.24, and 17.31 times, respectively, covering the first time, giving the company an “increase in holdings” rating. Risk warning: The risk that the policy implementation does not meet expectations; the risk that the financing environment causes project commencement and progress to fall short of expectations.

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