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大禹节水(300021)2018年年报点评:瞄准农场服务 有望实现腾飞

國信證券 ·  Apr 22, 2019 00:00  · Researches

Order driven performance, enhanced payback, and significant improvement in operating cash flow. In 2018, the company achieved revenue of 1.78 billion yuan, +38.63% year on year, and attributable net profit of 100 million yuan, +28.54% year on year. The company has seized opportunities for rural revitalization, done a good job in comprehensive service for the “three rural areas”, and opened up the market. Orders and market share have increased. New orders of 4.5 billion yuan were signed throughout the year, +52% over the same period, including major PPP projects such as Tianjin Wuqing (1.5 billion) and Wu Zhonglitong (1.4 billion), as well as traditional water-saving EPC orders in Shaya, Xinjiang (110 million). The company's sales expenses were well controlled in 2018, but management, finance, and R&D expenses increased rapidly year-on-year, and the period expenses increased by 1.59pct to 17.25%. The company vigorously strengthened project repayment last year, compounded by the growth of operating projects. Net operating cash flow increased from -14 million in 2017 to 798 million in 2018, with cash on hand exceeding 1.2 billion yuan at the end of the period. Due to the improvement in project quality, the gross margin of the company's irrigation products and water-saving projects increased by 18.52 and 5.04 pct respectively compared to last year; while the gross margin of the water-saving design business declined due to the increase in the share of internal design services. Operating assets are growing steadily, and the company that occupies rural services has demonstrated good results in promoting the “Yunnan Lu Liang Model” for efficient water-saving operation of farmland in China. It has been promoted successively in high-efficiency water-saving projects in Xiangyun, Yunnan Binchuan, Yunnan, Chengjiang, Ningxia, Tongliao, Inner Mongolia, etc., and the company's operating assets are growing steadily. The company plans to quickly form a number of water-saving operation projects from regions with high value-added crops throughout the country. On the basis of forming stable operating cash flow, it can also continue to expand various value-added services using farmland already operated as a medium. Aiming at the new farm service strategy, participating in the vast rural market from multiple angles is accompanied by the deepening of land circulation and water rights and water price reforms, and the farmland water-saving operation market will be quickly released. In the future, high-end, non-government farm markets will become mainstream. Under the new wave of rural construction, there is a wide range of market space. The company has been connecting with rural farmland services for a long time, continuously optimizing and integrating the power and resources of its smart water services and IoT technology. In the future, it will use farmland with water-saving operations as a channel to open up the agricultural raw material supply chain upstream, establish agricultural product traceability and distribution chains downstream, and use digital technology to establish full-process solutions for agricultural products. Profit forecasting and rating companies are scarce targets for farmland and rural services. They have abundant orders, a complete layout, and are forward-looking. We are optimistic about the company's broad development prospects under the new strategy. We expect the company's net profit for 2019-2021 to be 1.76/2.74/403 million yuan respectively, corresponding to PE 37/23/16 times, maintaining the buying rating. Risk warning: Project progress falls short of expectations, repayment progress or failure to meet expectations, short-term valuation is high

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