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美尚生态(300495)2018年报点评:生态产业链日臻完善 资金充足保障业务

國泰君安 ·  Apr 23, 2019 00:00  · Researches

The guide to this report: The “troika” strategy will further improve the layout of the ecological industry chain and enhance the overall competitive advantage. The improved and increased financing environment will ensure the smooth progress of the company's business. Key investment points: Maintain an increase in holdings. The company's 2018 revenue of about 2.3 billion yuan (-0.2%) /net profit of about 390 million yuan (+36%) is in line with expectations; the 2019Q1 performance forecast net profit growth rate is -17% ~ +1.6%; considering that tight credit in 2018 has a certain impact on order acceptance, the 2019/20 EPS forecast is 0.74/0.94 yuan (originally 0.75/1 yuan) with a growth rate of 31/ 26%, and the 2021 EPS growth rate is predicted to be 1.15 yuan 22%; considering the recent rise in risk appetite, the target price was raised to 16.88 yuan 22.8/18 times PE in 2019/20, increasing holdings. Gross and net interest rates have increased, and operating cash flow has been drastically corrected. 1) The net profit of Q1-Q4 was 0.12/1.34/0.63/179 million yuan, a growth rate of 259/13/53/ 35%; 2) the gross profit ratio was 34.3% (+7pct) due to the high-weight ecological restoration and ecological tourism (over 95% in total), and the net profit margin increased by 16.8% (+4.5pct); 3) the third rate was 11.1% (+3.8pct), and the management fee rate was 7% (+1.4pct) due to increased investment in R&D personnel and consumables/4.1% (+2.4pct) due to increased investment in R&D personnel and consumables/financial expenses of 4.1% (+2.4pct) due to increased investment in R&D personnel and consumables; 4.1% (+2.4pct) due to increased investment in R&D personnel and consumables; 4.1% (+2.4pct) Increased; 4) Net operating cash flow of 1.6 yuan (200 million yuan for the same period last year) due to strengthened repayment management; 5) Accounts receivable compared to total assets by 21.8% (-4.9pct). The “troika” has made more efforts, and sufficient capital is sufficient to guarantee the business. 1) Positioning the strategic development direction of ecological restoration/ecological cultural/ecological products: ① Ecological restoration: laying out various project types such as water/soil+large-scale mine restoration has been implemented+striving to become a leading mine restoration enterprise ② Ecological cultural tourism: deepening the industrial chain layout/introducing strategic alliances/forming strong industrial aggregation capabilities ③ Ecological products: Muqu has been sold to more than 50 cities in more than 28 provinces/launched new ecological plants; 2) Building three core business platforms of “R&D/construction/investment and financing” to form a unique and complete business model; 3) Strong R&D advantages: building four core technology systems, Among them, mines Remediation/land preparation technology is leading in the industry, and technologies such as water environment ecological management/soil erosion prevention are also prominent; 4) Q1. Significant improvements in data such as social finance and policies support private enterprise financing, which is conducive to promoting the continuous improvement of the private enterprise garden financing environment. The superposition of fixed growth will provide a solid financial guarantee for the company's ongoing project transformation and new business signing (1.45 billion dollars in on-hand monetary capital). Catalysts: Core risks such as a steady recovery in infrastructure growth, continued easing of capital, and marginal improvements in the PPP model: order execution and progress falling short of expectations, capital tightening, sluggish infrastructure growth, etc.

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