Event: the company released its quarterly report in 2019, with revenue of 832 million yuan, year-on-year + 36.21%, and net profit of 202 million yuan, + 352.29% and 0.13 yuan, respectively.
The company issued a semi-annual performance forecast, the company is expected to return to the home net profit of 450-500 million from January to June, + 63.13-81.26% compared with the same period last year, mainly due to the growth of sales revenue in the international market of the company's clindamycin hydrochloride products and the continuous expansion of the business scale of new dye products. revenue from pharmaceuticals and dyestuff sectors increased year-on-year.
Dye, medicine, two-wheel drive. The company's main business includes two major sectors: dye and medicine. Dye plate, the company is the global anthraquinone reactive brilliant blue KN-R global leader, with a production capacity of 15000 tons, market share of more than 60%, with industry pricing power. Pharmaceutical sector, the company is mainly engaged in antibiotics, cardiovascular, hypoglycemic and other APIs, for Peinan and clindamycin APIs global leader.
New pattern of dyes under high pressure of environmental protection security inspection. With the high pressure of environmental protection in the past two years and the major explosion of Xiangshui this year, the high pressure of environmental protection security inspection will be normalized, it is difficult to deal with the hazardous waste of brominic acid, the core intermediate of dyes, the small production capacity has been stopped and withdrawn one after another, and the supply is tight. The quotation rose and remained at 300000 / ton. Driven by the rise in the price of brominated acid, the price of reactive brilliant blue KN-R rose and remained at 220000 / ton.
Production capacity has been put into operation one after another. The company continues to expand its product range around the core intermediate brominic acid, and is expected to put 8000 tons of brominic acid and 15500 tons of reactive dyes in the third quarter of 2019, including high gross margin varieties such as reactive brilliant blue KE-GN, reactive blue KN-BB and reactive emerald blue KN-G. In addition, 18000 tons of anthraquinone disperse dyes are expected to be put into production in 2020, thickening the company's performance.
Give a "buy" investment rating. We forecast that the company's net profit from 2019 to 2021 will be 1.099 billion yuan, 1.379 billion yuan and 1.7 billion yuan respectively, and the EPS will be 0.68,0.85 yuan and 1.05 yuan respectively, corresponding to a multiple of PE in 14-11-9, with a "buy" rating.
Risk hint: the risk that the product price falls back and the project construction does not meet the expectations.
