share_log

启迪桑德(000826)年报点评:年报低于预期 等待业绩拐点

華泰證券 ·  Apr 23, 2019 00:00  · Researches

The performance fell short of expectations. Waiting for the full year of 2018, the inflection point company achieved revenue of 10.99 billion yuan (+17.5%), net profit due to mother of 644 million (-48.5%), and net profit of 605 million yuan (-49.0%) after deducting non-return to mother. The performance was lower than market expectations and our previous expectations. The company's performance fell short of expectations mainly due to: 1) the slow progress of the 18Q4 project due to increased PPP clearance and financing difficulties; 2) gross margin declined due to rising raw material costs; 3) the increase in the cost of raw materials and the calculation of bad debts exceeded expectations during the period. The company's net profit forecast for 19-20 was lowered to 7.8/9.6 (20.4/2.57 billion before adjustment), and a net profit of 1.17 billion yuan was introduced for 21. Referring to the 19-year average P/E of comparable companies, considering that the holding company's clearance is expected to introduce Xiong'an Group/Xiong'an New Area Management Committee to become the largest joint largest shareholder. In the future, it is expected that active participation in the construction of Xiong'an New Area should enjoy a premium. The company will be given 27-28x P/E for 19 years, corresponding to a target price of 14.85-15.40 yuan to maintain “purchase.” 19Q1 is expected to continue to be under pressure, and the 19Q2-Q3 business situation is expected to gradually improve. By business, the company's municipal engineering/environmental protection equipment installation and technical consulting business falls short of expectations. In 2018, the company's municipal engineering business achieved revenue of 2.41 billion yuan (-23.7%), with a gross margin of 25.7% (-4.1pct). The decline in revenue was mainly due to the PPP clearance policy in '18 and the progress of the company's projects slowed down, and the gross margin declined due to rising raw material prices. The company's environmental protection equipment installation and technical consulting business achieved revenue of 2.11 billion yuan (+6.3%) in 2018, with a gross margin of 40.4% (-13.1%). The decline in gross margin was mainly due to the increase in the price of upstream raw materials and the increase in the cost of required components. Furthermore, the company accrued bad debt losses of 250 million for the full year of '18 (14.36 million in the same period in '17), mainly due to the company's accounts receivable reaching 5.99 billion dollars (+55%) in '18. We judge that the performance of the 19Q1 company will still be under pressure, and the 19Q2-Q3 business situation is expected to gradually improve as the financing environment improves. Xiong'an State-owned Assets is expected to become the largest shareholder of the holding company. It is expected to help the company expand orders. In March 19, the company announced that the controlling shareholder Enlightenment Group signed a five-party agreement with Xiong'an New Area Management Committee, Xiong'an Group, Tsinghua University, and Clean Control Group. The five parties agreed that after this cooperation, funds controlled by Xiong'an Group and/or Xiong'an New Area Management Committee were tied with Tsinghua Holdings to become the largest shareholder of Enlightenment Holdings. As a high-quality environmental protection enterprise, Enlightenment Sound is expected to actively participate in the construction of Xiong'an New Area, and the company's financing difficulties are expected to ease in the future. The company's operating business accounted for 59% of revenue in '18, and we believe the predictability of the company's future operations will improve. Lowering the profit forecast, the target price is 14.85-15.40 yuan. We believe that the company is expected to reach an inflection point in performance in '19. Based on the '18 annual report, we lowered the company's gross margin assumption and raised the company's period expense ratio assumption, lowered the company's 19-20 EPS to 0.55/0.67 yuan (1.43/1.80 yuan before adjustment), and introduced a 21-year EPS of 0.82 yuan. Referring to the 19-year average P/E of comparable companies, considering that the holding company's clearance is expected to introduce Xiong'an Group/Xiong'an New Area Management Committee to become the largest joint largest shareholder. In the future, it is expected that active participation in the construction of Xiong'an New Area should enjoy a premium. The company will be given 27-28x P/E for 19 years, corresponding to a target price of 14.85-15.40 yuan to maintain “purchase.” Risk warning: Xiong'an's state-owned investment has changed, financing difficulties continue to increase, core management team personnel have been lost, gross margin has declined further, etc.

The translation is provided by third-party software.


The above content is for informational or educational purposes only and does not constitute any investment advice related to Futu. Although we strive to ensure the truthfulness, accuracy, and originality of all such content, we cannot guarantee it.
    Write a comment