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爱建集团(600643):信托主业穿越牛熊 民营机制力保增长

招商證券 ·  Apr 6, 2019 00:00  · Researches

Performance growth in the 2018 Annual Report was in line with expectations, and excellent ability to overcome industry adversity. The company's annual revenue was 2.65 billion yuan, up 14% year on year; net profit to mother was 1.16 billion yuan, up 40% year on year. Among them: (1) The core subsidiary Aijian Trust bucked the trend, achieving net profit of 1.1 billion yuan for the whole year, an increase of 24% year on year, and a trust size of 25.7 billion yuan, down 23.5% year on year. Against the backdrop of high-pressure industry supervision, shrinking trust scale, and declining industry performance, Aijian Trust's strong growth highlights its management capabilities. The company followed the trend to reduce channel size and strengthen active management. The annual active management scale was 66 billion yuan, an increase of 20% over the previous year. (2) Other subsidiaries surpassed expectations and promoted the diversified and three-dimensional development of the company. Subsidiaries such as leasing, assets, capital, and Hong Kong have gradually developed, with a total net profit of 270 million yuan for the year, a sharp increase of 81% over the previous year. Among them, Huarui Leasing's performance is stable, and after joining the company, it will greatly strengthen the profitability of the company's leasing sector. Focus on Aijian Trust and continue to grow worry-free. Aijian Trust's revenue in 2018 was 1.7 billion yuan, up 3% year on year, and net profit of 1.1 billion yuan, up 24% year on year, far higher than the industry's growth rate of -11%. After the equity change in 2018, Aijian Trust's management changes and market-based mechanisms promoted the company's efficiency and rapid development, and its management capabilities improved markedly. The annual trust asset size was 25.7 billion yuan, down 23.5% year on year. Among them, active and channel sizes were 66 billion yuan and 193.7 billion respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 20% and -31% respectively, accounting for 26% and 74% respectively (14% and 86% in 2017). The company complied with regulatory calls, actively narrowed the channel size, strengthened active management capabilities, and asset structure changes boosted the company's trust return to 0.64% (0.56% in 2017). Aijian Trust's core advantage is its ability to find high-quality assets. The company is deeply involved in the real estate business. Currently, the bottom of the real estate market is stabilizing. The recovery in sales is conducive to the rapid return of corporate capital, promoting a marked improvement in the company's business environment, and further increasing trust returns. Looking forward to the future, the company after the equity change will focus on the development of core business, complemented by a flexible private sector market-based mechanism, and changes in regulatory policies. We expect Aijian Trust's performance to rise at an accelerated pace. Continued optimization of benefit policies for the trust industry. Policies continue to warm up, and the trust industry is expected to see the dawn: first, new asset management regulations have been introduced, and supervision of non-standard and channel channels has been clearly relaxed; second, the “Notice on Strengthening Trust Supervision Work Regulating Asset Management Business During the Transition Period” does not require cuts in schedule plans, and differentiated channel business treatment is encouraged; third, new trust regulations are imminent, and trust companies are expected to obtain public equity licenses, which means that trusts will compete with other asset management entities for the mass customer market; fourth, the supervisory authorities will continue to deepen financial supply-side reforms and strengthen supply/small business/small private/small businesses Support from the three farmers, etc., and As a bank of silver, the trust will bear the burden of blood transfusions in the real economy. A warmer policy is expected to directly stimulate a rapid recovery in scale. In January-January 2019, a total of 30.8 billion new trust loans were added, changing from negative to positive, reversing the continued decline in scale in 2018. Looking ahead, considering the rapid decline in the base and the continued recovery of policies, we expect that new trust loans will increase in volume starting in March. The shareholding structure is clear. On the one hand, Junyao continued to increase its holdings and consolidate its controlling shareholder status. On January 3, 2019, Junyao Group announced that it will continue to increase its shareholding by 1% to 1.9%, and has now increased its holdings by 0.5%, reaching 28.34%, firmly grasping the company's control, which also conveys confidence that the company is optimistic about its long-term development. On the other hand, Aijian Special Foundation is still the company's second-largest shareholder (10.9%), maintaining a close cooperative relationship with the Shanghai State-owned Assets Administration Commission; at the same time, introducing the Guangzhou Municipal Government as the cornerstone shareholder to achieve a win-win situation. After the equity structure stabilized, the company's focus changed to the construction of market-based mechanisms and focused on business development and profitability improvement. Raise the company's rating to Highly Recommended. After the change in the company's shareholding structure, the entire company made every effort to carry out the business, and profitability is expected to continue to improve. The core subsidiary Aijian Trust's resource endowments are in line with the current business environment, and the recovery of the real estate market is beneficial to the company's asset-side return; the downward pressure on the economy is strong, and regulatory policies will continue to guide the market's vitality. The trust industry is recovering imminent. The company is expected to expand and strengthen the trust business, and the scale of trust assets is expected to bottom up; the addition of Huarui Leasing is expected to strengthen the profitability of the company's other business sectors, and other businesses will blossom more. Based on the above, we forecast the company's net profit to be 1.5 billion dollars in 2019, an increase of 30% over the previous year. We upgraded the company's rating to highly recommended. The partial valuation gave the company a total market value of 27.7 billion yuan (23.7 billion dollars for trusts, 2 billion yuan for leases, 2 billion yuan for others), a target price of 17 yuan, and 36% of space. Risk warning: The real estate market has experienced large fluctuations, stricter implementation of new asset management regulations, stricter trust supervision policies, and drastic market adjustments;

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