The annual report was slightly lower than expected, the main business grew steadily, and commercial real estate depreciation dragged down the performance.
The company disclosed its 2018 annual report: realized income of 2.17 billion yuan, an increase of 10.19% over the same period last year; net profit of 348 million yuan, an increase of 5.66% over the same period last year; net profit of 284 million yuan, an increase of 1.65% over the same period last year, and cash dividends of 2 yuan for every 10 shares, with a dividend rate of 40%. The performance was slightly lower than expected, mainly due to the full opening of Qingdao Media City Plaza during the year, which is still in the cultivation period. Depreciation of new converted assets dragged down performance, and net profit growth reached 16.65 after excluding the impact of depreciation. It is estimated that the EPS for 19-21 will be 0.55, 0.63, 0.69 yuan, and the target price is 9.35-9.90 yuan, maintaining the overweight rating.
The publishing business is growing steadily, and education, fashion and children's categories go hand in hand.
In 18 years, the publishing sector achieved revenue of 928 million yuan, an increase of 10.48%, a gross profit margin of 47.17%, an annual increase of 7518 books by 0.62pct.18, an increase of 13%, a reprint rate of 85.6%, and an increase of 5.6pct. From the perspective of subdivision, many projects such as the social science and humanities plate "three Gorges" and the complete works of Yungang Grottoes Art have been selected into the national special plan; the education publishing section, on the basis of continuing to maintain and promote the green edition of national standard teaching materials, more than 20 new projects such as "Sinology Classics" and "Mental Health Education" have been launched in the past 18 years, and the best-selling teaching assistant "Jiafenbao" has completed the upgrading and transformation. Children's books section, make efforts to publish original picture books, love themselves, Gongxidaye, youth reading and other series of hot sales; fashion life plate, create fashion life professional publishing, further cooperation with gourmet Cai Lan, publish taste series books, form a green version of Cai Lan IP.
The distribution business, retail, network and library matching go hand in hand to successfully explore the operation mode of the theme bookstore.
The 18-year issue plate achieved revenue of 1.77 billion yuan, an increase of 9.60%, a gross profit margin of 20.73%, and an increase of 0.32pct. Retail, network and library go hand in hand. The chain cultural service brands composed of Qingdao City Media Square, BCMIX, Qingdao study, Hanyong, Mingyue Island and Trestle Bookstore support each other with the "book free reading system" created by wisdom kiosks and city studies as the core products. The theme publication "Xi Jinping governing the country" and other political and theoretical books have sold more than 1.46 million copies; the theme bookstore BCMIX compound cultural consumption space has opened more than 30, covering Beijing, Shanghai, Shenzhen and other cities. Qingdao City Media Plaza is fully open. Due to the depreciation of new fixed assets, Qingdao Media Development Company, the main operator, has an annual income of 226.3 billion yuan and a loss of 58.37 million yuan, which is a drag on the overall performance.
With the rapid development of new business type, many projects in the new media, film and television and investment sectors have landed.
The company's new media, film and television and other new business sectors are developing rapidly, creating a new media matrix with digital products such as digital time, Lanqi, craftsman's voice, Qingyun ladder and other digital products. Lanju's product matrix has broken through 300 million hits and 500000 total fans. Carpenter's "just" radio program has entered the top 10 of the Himalayan women's list. A number of projects have been carried out in an orderly manner. In June 2018, at the first Shanghai Cooperation Organization National Film Festival, the film project on international economic and trade cooperation with Pakistan was officially launched. in addition, TV dramas and full-length documentary literature will be launched at the same time. The investment sector has allocated US $4000 to invest indirectly in round E financing, the main body of the Himalayan red-chip structure, which is expected to bring considerable investment returns.
The main business is growing steadily, depreciation is still a drag on performance in the short term, and maintain the overweight rating.
The company's main business is growing steadily, its profitability is gradually improving, and its comprehensive gross profit margin is 39.09%, with an increase of 0.31pct. As it is expected that depreciation of Qingdao Media City Plaza will still be a drag on short-term performance, the expense rate is higher than the previous forecast, and the profit forecast for 1920 is reduced by 15% and 20%. It is estimated that the net return profit for 19-21 will be RMB 3.87 2019PE 482 million, EPS 0.55 pm 0.63 max 0.69, and 2019PE 17-18X with a target price of 9.35-9.90 yuan. Maintain the overweight rating.
Risk Tip: Qingdao Media City Square cultivation progress is not as expected.