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金地商置(00535.HK):2018年销售保持稳健增长

東吳證券 ·  Jan 25, 2019 00:00  · Researches

Incident, Jindi Commercial Investment announced operating data for December 2018: in December, it achieved contract sales of about 8.298 billion yuan, contract sales area of 401,500 square meters, average sales price of 20,700 yuan/square meter; from January to December 2018, the company achieved cumulative contract sales of 49.029 billion yuan and a sales area of 2.263 million square meters. Review The sales growth rate continued to increase in the second half of the year, and the monthly sales scale growth rate reached 64%. The company's contract sales in December were about 8.298 billion yuan, up 64% year on year, up 10 percentage points from previous value; contract sales area was 401,500 square meters, up 68% year on year; average sales price was 20,700 yuan/square meter. In December, the company's marketing structure changed, and the average monthly sales price continued to remain high, driving a considerable increase in sales amount. Judging from the cumulative data, from January to December 2018, the cumulative contract sales volume was 49.029 billion yuan, up 8% year on year; the cumulative contract sales area was 2.263 million square meters, down 9% year on year. In 2018, due to the pace of goods prices, the cumulative sales amount for the first half of the year fell 29% year on year. Since the second half of the year, the company's sales volume has continued to increase, driving the sales growth rate to rectify, and the cumulative growth rate of sales for the whole year was 8%. Land acquisition is active, and land reserves are abundant. The company added 8 new projects in the first half of the year, with a total planned construction area of 941,000 square meters, a total acquisition price of 9.572 billion yuan, and an average equity cost of 10,200 yuan/square meter. As of the end of June 2018, the company's cumulative land reserves reached 13.42 million square meters, an increase of 11% over the previous year, and a layout in more than 20 cities. Looking at the distribution of urban energy levels, first-tier cities account for about 21.3% of land reserves. Investment suggestion: Jindi commercial land acquisition outlook, focusing on core Tier 1 and 2 cities. Land reserves are abundant and costs are low. Currently, the land reserve scale is close to 14 million square meters. Affected by the promotion structure, the company's sales growth is expected to accelerate. At the same time, the company also holds a large number of high-quality properties in core cities, and also has a large number of properties under construction. Rental income will continue to rise in the future. We expect the company's EPS in 2018-2020 to be 0.19, 0.25, and 0.32 yuan respectively, and the corresponding PE is 3.4, 2.6, and 2.1 times, respectively. Risk warning: industry sales fluctuations; business risks due to policy adjustments (shed reform, regulation, tax policies, etc.); changes in the financing environment (mortgages, development loans, interest rate adjustments, etc.); business operation risks (personnel changes, construction, land acquisition, etc.); exchange rate fluctuation risk.

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