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浦东金桥(600639)2018年报点评:业绩靓丽 结转加速、租金跳增

Comments on Pudong Jinqiao (600639) 2018 Annual report: beautiful carry-over acceleration, rent jump

華創證券 ·  Apr 14, 2019 00:00  · Researches

18 years revenue + 65%, performance + 33%, due to property settlement, leasing income jumped 18 years revenue 2.76 billion, year-on-year + 65.0%, home net profit 980 million, year-on-year + 32.5%; basic earnings per share 0.87 yuan per share, year-on-year + 32.5% The gross profit margin and home net profit rate were 51.9% and 35.4% respectively, compared with last year-15.3pct and-8.7pct, due to the decline in gross profit margin of real estate settlement projects; the three fee rates totaled 6.5%, year-on-year-2.7pct. The company's weighted return on equity of 11.3%, year-on-year + 2.9pct, benefited from the acceleration of the carry-over. The high increase in revenue and performance of the company stems from the confirmed income of 1.14 billion yuan (corresponding to a net profit of 280 million yuan) from the completion and delivery of the "Biyun 10" project, resulting in a great increase in the carry-over scale. In terms of revenue structure, the company's real estate sales, real estate leasing and hotel business achieved income of 12.0,13.9 and 160 million respectively in the past 18 years, which was + 317%, + 13% and + 5% respectively compared with the same period last year. In addition, it is proposed to pay a dividend of 3.0 yuan per 10 shares, with a dividend rate of 34%, maintaining a high level. The company's asset-liability ratio and net debt ratio are 55.4% and 46.1% respectively, which are still at a low level in the industry compared with + 0.2pct and + 7.1pct, respectively.

Leasable properties 235 million square meters, contribute to stable cash flow, Biyun 100 carry forward as scheduled, considerable profits by the end of 18 years, the company can rent property area of 235.4 square meters, with an overall occupancy rate of 82.1%; among them, the occupancy rates of factories, residential, R & D buildings, office buildings and commerce are 76%, 96%, 68%, 84% and 90% respectively. In addition, the company owns 376,000 square meters of leased land, and continues to strengthen the construction and operation of investment properties, these high-quality resources can create stable and lasting rental income for the company. The company owns 1056 serviced apartments, an increase of 236 over the same period last year. The scale of rental properties continues to grow and the cash flow is stable. In the past 18 years, the company received a cash inflow of 2.22 billion yuan from selling goods and providing services, which was-9.9% compared with the same period last year. This is due to a slight decline in property sales rebates. Considering the strategic opportunity of the transformation from the edge of the central city to the urban center in the process of Shanghai's urban boundary expansion and the sharp rise in land prices in first-tier cities over the past 16 years, it is expected that the value of high-quality properties held by the company will continue to rise. In terms of real estate projects, the third phase of the Lingang Biyun 10 project has been launched with a good housing supply removal rate of 60%, with a cumulative collection of about 1.81 billion yuan.

Secondary development invigorates existing resources, light asset operation + brand output has achieved initial results. S11 or pre-sale of the company's "secondary development" officially set sail 15 years later, intended to promote industrial structure transformation and invigorate land. At present, the completion of the Office Park Ⅱ metro block project (lot T3-5) has been steadily advanced; the completion, acceptance and delivery of the project in the Ⅱ phase of the workshop have been completed; the project in the Ⅲ phase of the workshop has been promoted in an orderly manner; the planning permit has been obtained from the Ⅴ phase of the workshop (4-02 site), and the preliminary work is under preparation; 90% of the main structure of the S11 residential project Biyunzun residence has been completed, and part of the sales of the project will provide rich performance support. The construction of the superstructure of the project in the east, south and north of the new material innovation base of Beijiao Future Industrial Park has been completed by 85%. In addition, the company strengthens the cultivation of the service apartment business plate, strengthens the light asset operation and brand output, Biyun Pavilion, Biyunyuan, Biyunting three major brands have formed a very distinct brand positioning and image system; and achieved a breakthrough in brand management, undertaking the entrusted management of two projects, taking the first step for the public export brand.

Investment advice: excellent performance, accelerated carry-over, jump in rent, maintain "recommended" rating Pudong Jinqiao, as the main undertaker of Jinqiao Development Zone, has 2.45 million square high-quality self-owned properties near the Central District of Pudong, Shanghai. including leases for industrial plants and R & D offices. In addition, the company is facing the strategic opportunity of changing from the edge of the central city to the city center in the process of urban boundary expansion in Shanghai, holding high-quality properties to enhance the value of high-quality properties, and gradually accelerate the secondary development through the acquisition of properties in the area. invigorate the stock resources. Taking into account the accelerated settlement of Biyun 10 and the imminent advance of S11 or pre-sale, we raise the company's earnings per share forecast for 19-21 to RMB 0.98,1.11,1.26 (the original forecast for 19-20 is RMB 0.79,0.87). In view of the current upward valuation level of the industry as a whole and the centralized release of performance of Biyun 10 and S11, according to the 19-year target PE20 times, raise the target price to 19.60 yuan and maintain the "recommended" rating.

Risk hint: the sales volume of the real estate market is higher than expected and the relaxation of industry funds is less than expected.

The translation is provided by third-party software.


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