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中衡设计(603017)2018年年报点评:设计业绩提速 有望受益长三角一体化

國信證券 ·  Apr 16, 2019 00:00  · Researches

Driven by two main businesses, the growth rate of the design business was impressive. In 2018, the company achieved revenue of 1,866 million dollars, an increase of 28.32% over the previous year, and realized net profit of 168 million yuan, an increase of 11.74% over the previous year. The two main businesses grew steadily. Among them, the design business achieved revenue of 882 million yuan, an increase of 41.86% over the previous year, new design orders of 1,743 million, a sharp increase of 165% over the previous year; and the engineering contracting business achieved revenue of 708 million yuan, an increase of 11.17% over the previous year. There was an increase in gross margin, and cash flow maintained a net inflow of cash flow into the company. The ROE in 2018 was 9.70%, up 0.37pct from the previous year. Gross margin was 25.11%, up 0.46pct year on year. The increase in gross margin was mainly due to an increase in the share of design business with high gross margin; net margin was 9.60%, down 1.57 pct year on year. The period fee rate was 11.89%, down 0.12pct from the previous year; among them, the management fee rate decreased by 0.17pct to 11.92%, and the financial expense ratio increased by 0.04pct to -0.03%. The total asset turnover ratio was 0.62 times, up 14.81% year on year, accounts receivable turnover ratio was 2.49 times, down 5.68% year on year, and operating capacity remained stable; the balance ratio was 41.22%, up 2.23 pct year on year. The company has maintained a net cash flow in the past five years. In 2018, it achieved net operating cash flow of $89 million, and net operating cash flow/operating income of 4.78%. Q4 performance growth accelerated. The company's 2018 Q1, Q2, Q3, and Q4 completed revenue of 294 million, 365 million, 395 million, and 812 million, respectively, with year-on-year increases of 51.15%, 14.53%, 20.44%, and 32.45%; achieving net profit of 0.2 million, 53 million, 41 million, and 54 million, year-on-year increases of 14.52%, -1.37%, 12.18%, and 26.85%, respectively. The company's performance growth accelerated in the fourth quarter. Endogenous epitaxial is advancing the national layout, and it is expected that the Yangtze River Delta integrated company will gradually form a key regional layout in East China, South China, Southwest China, and Northwest China using a combination of endogenous growth and epitaxial development. The company's revenue share in non-East China regions has already exceeded 30% during the reporting period, and the national layout strategy is beginning to bear fruit. Recently, the Development and Reform Commission is seeking comments on the outline of the Yangtze River Delta integrated development plan. Since the rail transit approval was restarted in 2018, more than 60% of the approved projects have been invested in the Yangtze River Delta region. More infrastructure projects are expected to be implemented at an accelerated pace in the future, and the company's deep involvement in East China is expected to benefit fully. Profit forecast and investment advice: The company's EPS for 19-21 is expected to be 0.77/0.95/1.14 yuan, and PE is 19.2/15.6/12.9 times, respectively. Maintain a “buy” rating. Risk warning: bad accounts receivable, slow investment in fixed assets, order conversion rate falling short of expectations, etc.

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