Main points of investment:
With the steady growth of cultural performing arts business, the dual main business model of "real estate + culture" is beginning to take shape. After the company acquired the impression in 2016, the cultural and performing arts projects entered a period of accelerated development. at present, the company has a total of 17 performing and contracted production projects, of which 10 public performances or contracts are realized within 3 years after the completion of the acquisition. By the beginning of 2019, "see Malacca again", "return to the three Gorges" and "return to Zunyi long March Road" have been staged on schedule, and it is expected that "impression of Dianchi Lake" and "impression of Dianchi Lake" will be completed and entered the public performance stage one after another in 2019. As the existing projects gradually mature through the training period, the revenue growth engine of the cultural and performing arts business will switch to the box office sharing business of each project, and the sustainability of growth will be strengthened. the overall box office revenue is expected to grow by 17% in 2019 and 13% in 2020.
The real estate business focuses on first-tier cities, and the rise in house prices in Yanjiao forms a strong catalyst. As of 2018H1, the company's remaining salable area of 211800 square meters, are concentrated in Shanghai, Hangzhou and other first-and second-tier cities, the project safety margin is high. In 2019, Shangfu Mansion in Sanxianghai (Pudong, Shanghai) and Shangyun Mansion in Sanxianghai (Chongming, Shanghai) are expected to be sold and carried forward one after another, which is expected to contribute more profit increments in 19 years. With the advance of the integration of Beijing, Tianjin and Hebei, the urban area of Beijing is expanding towards Tongzhou, and the traffic formed by superimposing the Xinping Valley Line of the subway is good. From the beginning of the year to this year, the East Yanjiao block will gradually heat up. The planned construction area of the company's Yanjiao project is about 1.1793 million square meters, with a value-added rate of about 226%. At present, the underground works and parking lots of some parts of the project have been completed, and the first phase of the building is expected to be sold in 2020. if the Yanjiao project can be successfully developed and listed as planned, it will bring abundant cash return to the company in the next few years.
Management shareholding is a sign of confidence and 18-year performance commitments are expected to be fulfilled. Since July of 15 years, senior executives of the company have gradually increased their holdings of the company's shares, forming interest bindings and showing confidence in the operation of the company. In 2017, under the influence of the bankruptcy reorganization of Guilin Guanwei Wenhua, the company's performance commitment completion rate dropped to 82.48%. According to the agreement, if the company achieves a net profit of 195 million yuan in 2018, it can fulfill its promise to receive a performance reward. Based on the 56% net interest rate, the revenue required to achieve the profit level here is about 345 million yuan, which is the same as last year and can basically be completed.
Profit forecast and investment suggestions: the company grasps the period of rapid development of leisure travel, cuts into the literature and tourism performing arts industry in time, and comprehensively opens the strategic pattern of "culture + real estate" two-wheel drive. The real scene performing arts business itself is scarce. Synergy can promote the value of the brand. According to the segment valuation method, the company's real estate business is valued at 5.174 billion yuan, while the impression is valued at 2.8 billion yuan. The total market value is expected to be 8 billion yuan, and there is still room for 18% increase. It is estimated that the EPS from 2018 to 2020 will be 0.32 euro 0.84 euro 1.05, corresponding to PE 15-6-5, the first coverage will be "overweight" rating.
Risk hint: the growth of passenger flow is not as expected, and the construction progress of Yanjiao project is not as expected.